Key takeaways:
- Top traders boosted their Bitcoin long-to-short ratios, strengthening the $76,000 support floor.
- Macroeconomic pressures and persistent Bitcoin ETF outflows are capping immediate Bitcoin breakout potential to $82,000.
Bitcoin (BTC) flirted with $78,000 on Thursday but failed to sustain its bullish momentum after a disappointing outlook from US retailer Walmart and growing signs of a more restrictive US monetary policy. Despite weakening macroeconomic conditions, professional Bitcoin traders increased their bullish exposure. Is a rally to $82,000 the next step?
Top traders’ Bitcoin long-to-short position at Binance & OKX. Source: CoinGlass
Top traders’ long-to-short ratio jumped to its highest level in 2 weeks, indicating growing confidence in the $76,000 support level. At Binance, the ratio remained near 8% favoring longs (buy) for three days, while traders at OKX reduced their shorts (sell) between Wednesday and Thursday. Still, in absolute terms, the long-to-short indicator remains neutral.
Worsening economy and high oil prices prompt US rate hike fears
Part of this lack of confidence can be pinned to worsening economic growth perspectives. Walmart (WMT US) saw its shares decline 7% after issuing weak 2027 guidance due to persistently high oil prices. Walmart CFO John Furner said low-income consumers are “navigating financial distress.” The company acts as a proxy for US retail data due to its massive $178 billion quarterly sales.
The prolonged war in Iran and the subsequent partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz have kept crude Brent oil prices sustained above $95 for the past month. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has less room to maneuver due to this upward inflationary pressure. Traders are now anticipating interest rate hikes, marking a complete turnaround from the previous month’s expectations.
FOMC interest rate target probabilities for Sept. 2026. Source: CME Group FedWatch Tool
The implied odds of interest rate hikes by September, based on government bond futures markets, have jumped to 37%, up from 0% one month prior. Thus, regardless of the strength of the S&P 500 Index, investors anticipate accelerated growth in the monetary base, as higher interest rates negatively affect the $39 trillion US government debt.
Bitcoin/USD at Coinbase vs. Bitcoin/USDT at major exchanges. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
The Bitcoin price at Coinbase traded at a 0.10% discount relative to Bitcoin prices at major exchanges quoted in USDT. This negative Coinbase Bitcoin premium is typically associated with weak institutional demand, which aligns with the $2.07 billion net outflows from US-listed Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since May 12.
Related: Chance of new Bitcoin lows ‘extremely slim’ as long-term holders’ supply tops 15M BTC
Bitcoin perpetual futures annualized funding rate. Source: Laevitas
The Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rate has maintained neutral levels since Monday, reversing the trend from the prior week. The current 7% rate is far from being bullish, but it marks a complete turnaround from May 14 when shorts (sellers) paid 13% to keep their positions open.
Given the uncertain perspectives for global economies, the odds of a sustained Bitcoin bull run to $82,000 in the near term appear low. Still, the reduction in top traders’ short positions and a balanced perpetual futures funding rate indicate that bulls are gradually building confidence in the $76,000 support level.