CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said the gold-to-Bitcoin rotation story lacks consistent historical support. He used 180-day moving averages to compare trend strength across both assets.
His framework showed constructive signals when Bitcoin traded above its 180-day average while gold traded below. However, different cycles delivered different outcomes, and both assets sometimes rose together.
Another CryptoQuant update said Bitcoin underperformed major assets even as equities held near records. Gold traded about 25% above its 200-day average, and silver sat near 45% above it. Bitcoin remained about 30% below its peak, and the firm flagged shifts in correlation since mid-2025. Bitcoin’s link with gold turned negative in July, and its link diverged in August.
Flows also shaped near-term pricing. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a $5.1 billion drawdown from peak holdings. On-chain data also showed steady whale selling since October. linked Bitcoin’s lag to sustained selling pressure. The note pointed to large holders and ETF outflows.
Sovereign headlines added more fuel, but no confirmation. Posts on X claimed Kazakhstan may sell part of its gold reserves. The reports said it could allocate up to $300 million to Bitcoin and crypto.
Sentiment metrics also leaned toward Bitcoin in long-horizon views. Gold advocate Peter Schiff shared a poll on a $100,000 choice through December 19, 2028. Bitcoin led with 62.4% of responses.
Traders now watch the US PCE inflation report for clues on Fed policy. Analysts said softer data could improve liquidity and lift Bitcoin’s risk appetite.