Bitcoin has struggled through 2026, failing to maintain the heights of over $126,000 per bitcoin reached last year (even as U.S. president Donald Trump reveals a bitcoin bombshell).
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The bitcoin price has lost more than 50% since October, but a Federal Reserve surprise flip could be about to change that.
Now, as the chief executive of the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, issues a 12-month bitcoin price prediction, a closely-watched analysts has said he expects the fleet of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will likely mean the bitcoin price “mirrors” gold’s history of “triumph and pain.”
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Bitcoin has seen huge price swings since the the debut of a fleet of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in early 2024.
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“Gold ETFs’ 22-year history may offer the closest roadmap yet for bitcoin ETF investors,” Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted to X.
The gold price has rocketed to give gold a market capitalization of almost $28 trillion since the arrival of gold ETFs in 2004.
“Both are wrappers around non-yielding stores of value that generate no cash flow, leaving investor sentiment—not earnings, coupons or government support, as with stocks and bonds—to drive performance,” Balchunas wrote.
Balchunas pointed to gold seeing “both extremes,” over the last two decades, “briefly becoming the world’s largest ETF before spending eight years in doldrums trying to get back to that place.”
Bitcoin ETFs “may be following the same script: spectacular gains, painful drawdowns and recoveries that may test investors’ patience,” Balchunas said, adding that, “each cycle for gold ETFs has increased the high water mark.”
The spot bitcoin ETF debut, coming in early 2024 after more then 10 years of campaigning by crypto investors, saw a handful of bitcoin funds become some of the fastest growing of all-time as Wall Street rushed to gain exposure to bitcoin.
Earlier this month, analysts with the Bitfinex exchange warned a “shock” ETF outflow could be about to torpedo the bitcoin price recovery, which has climbed by almost 10% since plunging to lows of under $57,000 in early July.
BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest bitcoin fund by net assets that dominates the bitcoin ETF field, has sold almost 100,000 bitcoin in recent months to meet redemption requests, now holding just over 733,000 bitcoin worth just under $50 billion on behalf of investors.
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The bitcoin price has crashed back this year, though many bullish bitcoin and crypto investors remain bullish, predicting a bitcoin price boom to rival gold.
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“I feel like there’s a spiritual parallel between gold and IBIT,” Balchunas said. “Gold got so popular so quickly that for one day in 2011 it was bigger than SPY [the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust], the biggest ETF in world. Then it went out of favor for years. IBIT, similarly reached $100 billion in assets for one day … and that ended up being the October [2025] top. Both have almost new new supply and so when the demand comes it can cause price explosions. Problem is that demand can be fickle and come in waves vs steady.”
For now, bitcoin and crypto traders are confident that demand for bitcoin exposure via ETFs is showing resilience, helping to dampen the bitcoin price decline in recent months.
“Institutional demand remains one of bitcoin’s key pillars,” Simon-Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, said in emailed comments.
“Spot bitcoin ETFs continue to attract steady investment inflows, while an increasing number of companies are incorporating digital assets into their portfolio diversification strategies. This institutional interest has helped ease the selling pressure observed during the latest market pullbacks.”