Bitcoin is rising on liquidity recovery and institutional demand, not geopolitics, says Coinbase executive

Bitcoin’s recent rally is being driven by recovering market liquidity and strong institutional demand rather than geopolitical events like the US intervention in Venezuela or the capture of Nicolas Maduro, according to John D’Agostino, Coinbase’s head of institutional strategy.

“It’s a massive geopolitical event. That narrative certainly holds as a long-term thesis, that proof of Bitcoin as a temporary currency to replace a destabilized currency. That’s fine. I also hear the argument that we’re probably going to have lower oil prices. Historically, the Fed has eased during lower oil price conditions,” said D’Agostino, speaking on CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ today.

“However, usually that’s a demand issue versus a supply issue. I’ve got to be honest. I don’t see any direct evidence that what’s happening in Venezuela is directly applicable,” he added.

D’Agostino highlighted market makers rebuilding positions as a key factor driving Bitcoin higher, along with rising retail sentiment, strong institutional momentum, and Bitcoin’s decades-long performance as a store of value.

According to him, Bitcoin has gained over 11,000% in the past decade compared to gold’s 260% and the S&P 500’s roughly 300% rise.

“We’re seeing gradual rebuilding from this liquidity event we had on October 10. The market makers are getting more comfortable with their risk parameters, adding risk back into the market,” he noted.

“We’re seeing retail sentiment catch up to what we’ve known on the institutional side. So retail sentiment [is] catching up to institutional momentum,” he said.

On institutional adoption, D’Agostino said no major institution working on crypto strategies pulled back despite Bitcoin’s 6% decline in 2025.

“I don’t know of a single large company that doesn’t have an AI and blockchain strategy, or at least thinks of one,” he said.

He noted that regulatory momentum has accelerated institutional timelines rather than slowed them.

D’Agostino also addressed Bitcoin’s volatility concerns, acknowledging that while the asset remains volatile, it has become less so over time.

He pointed to expanding use cases, including new regulations allowing Bitcoin as mortgage collateral and partnerships enabling spending at thousands of vendors.

Regarding ongoing public skepticism around crypto, D’Agostino said that senior institutional leaders no longer openly doubt Bitcoin’s viability. He noted that few, if any, executives at the partner level would now claim Bitcoin is going to zero.

“If you think that now at a partner level, you’re keeping your mouth shut, because it’s a bit embarrassing,” he said.