What triggered the bitcoin rally?
The immediate trigger was Thursday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported just 57,000 new jobs in June — well below the 110,000 forecast and down from a revised 129,000 in May. In the minutes after the release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by September fell from approximately 65% to 50% according to CME FedWatch data (2 July 2026).
That shift matters enormously for bitcoin. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin. When rate hike expectations fall, that headwind reduces — and bitcoin, which had been in extreme fear territory (Fear & Greed Index: 11 as of 1 July), can react sharply.
The move built on momentum from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments on 2 July that inflation risks had come down, which had already pushed bitcoin above $60,000 for the first time in over a week. The weak NFP then accelerated the rally to $62,000 (Invezz, 3 July 2026).