Arthur Hayes, Bitmex co-founder and Maelstrom chief investment officer, argues that the AI infrastructure boom resembles a leveraged real estate credit bubble. He compares its financing structure with the 2008 financial crisis rather than the dot-com crash.
Hayes says hyperscalers are building data centers that combine real estate with expensive hardware that can lose value quickly. Newer chips can deliver more computing power while using less electricity, increasing the risk that older equipment becomes obsolete.
In his , “Situationship,” Hayes argues that losses from excessive AI lending could eventually force authorities to inject large amounts of liquidity. He says that liquidity could push Bitcoin above $1 million.
Hayes also argues that AI credit and equity absorbed capital after Bitcoin peaked in October 2025. Under his framework, that shift reduced the marginal liquidity available to support further Bitcoin gains.
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He said could trade between $60,000 and $70,000 for some time, with possible downside toward $50,000. Hayes also cited concerns about potential Bitcoin sales from Strategy as part of the near-term market picture.
Hayes expects data center capital spending growth to slow from mid-2027 and become clearer during 2028. He expects credit expansion to continue during that slowdown, mirroring the 2006–2007 housing pattern in his analysis.
Meanwhile, geopolitical developments remain another source of market uncertainty. Axios reported that Trump had adopted a lower-profile approach toward and favored mounting economic pressure rather than another military offensive.