As soon as Bitcoin (BTC +0.30%) dipped below the $60,000 price level in June, alarm bells went off. Bitcoin hasn’t been this low since October 2024. It’s now down nearly 50% since hitting an all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.
If history is any guide, though, Bitcoin may have already bottomed out. It’s certainly a risky move, but buying Bitcoin now may turn out to be one of the smartest investments you make this year. Here’s why.
Bitcoin’s famous four-year cycle
Let’s start with the obvious: Bitcoin is highly cyclical, trading in four-year cycles of boom and bust. The timing is not Swiss-clock accurate, but Bitcoin typically has three very good years before having one very bad year.
Just look at the historical data. Bitcoin had good years in 2019, 2020, and 2021 before collapsing entirely in 2022. Bitcoin had good years in 2015, 2016, and 2017, before collapsing entirely in 2018. The same pattern played out from 2011 to 2014.
Image source: Getty Images.
That’s why the current period of significant price decline doesn’t worry me as much as it does other crypto investors. In simple terms, Bitcoin was “due” for a year-long collapse, and now we’re seeing it play out in real time.
That’s the bad news. The good news is that market sentiment can turn on a dime when it comes to Bitcoin. Just think back to the doom and gloom of 2022, during the so-called crypto winter. Everyone, it seemed, was convinced that Bitcoin was going to zero. The crypto bears were out in force, trying to convince everyone that Bitcoin was worthless.
But Bitcoin delivered triple-digit returns in 2023 and 2024, before soaring to a new all-time high of $126,000 in 2025. At that point, plenty of hyper-bullish crypto investors started to claim that the Bitcoin four-year cycle was a relic of the past. They were convinced that it was “up only” from here on out. But long-term Bitcoin investors knew better.
Get ready for a near-term Bitcoin recovery
Still not convinced? Consider that a number of high-profile analysts, including Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, are already starting to call a “bottom” on Bitcoin. Some are going one step further and setting out bullish price targets for 2026.
Today’s Change
(0.30%) $189.11
Current Price
$64,119.00
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$63672.00 – $64419.00
52wk Range
$57945.16 – $126079.89
Volume
17.7B
Standard Chartered, for example, is now convinced that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by year-end. Investment firm Bernstein thinks Bitcoin could hit $150,000. Tom Lee of Fundstrat thinks Bitcoin might hit $250,000.
OK, you can ignore that last price target. It’s truly outlandish. But I’m on the side of crypto analysts predicting a strong year-end rally for Bitcoin. The historical data is just too convincing to ignore.