Bitcoin futures fell sharply on Thursday, dropping to $58,995 — their lowest level since October 2024. The decline has pushed the cryptocurrency more than 50% below its peak from last year.
The $60,000 mark has remained a crucial battleground for Bitcoin throughout the year. The cryptocurrency found support around that level in February and again during the first half of June before staging a rebound that briefly lifted prices above $67,000.
“Over the last few days, we have seen profit booking across assets that had rallied on geopolitical uncertainty and liquidity expectations. What’s interesting is that Bitcoin, gold and oil have all corrected together, which tells us that investors are reducing exposure to the same macro trade across markets,” says Nischal Shetty, founder, WazirX
However, several reports suggest that bitcoin is likely to tank another 30% and the current bear market is likely to bottom in the fourth quarter at roughly $42,000-$44,000.
Jiang Zhuoer, one of China’s best-known bitcoin miners and founder of the LeBit mining pool predicts Bitcoin to trade in the $42,000–$44,000 range sometime between October and December, as per CoinDesk.
Meanwhile, a CNBC report said, “The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) traded just shy of 1.1 million options Thursday, almost double the average the past thirty days.” And, investors showed a clear preference for downside protection, as put option trading was more than double call option trading.
According to the estimates, there is nearly a 48% chance that IBIT could fall below $30.5, which would mean another 10% decline from current levels, by the end of next month, the report suggested.
What is driving the plunge?
Apart from geopolitical developments, the surge in AI-related investments has also emerged as a key factor influencing Bitcoin’s price movement.
“Capital has been flowing back into select AI and technology stocks, while ETF inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared to earlier periods. That creates a temporary imbalance where selling pressure is not being matched by the same level of buying demand,” WazirX founder says.
And, adding to the pressure, the U.S. Dollar Index has climbed to a 13-month high, a headwind for Bitcoin given its historically inverse correlation with the dollar, reveals Prateek Gupta, Head of Business, Mudrex.
Is this a opportunity to buy?
“Markets are now focused on upcoming U.S. macroeconomic data, including PCE inflation, GDP growth, and jobless claims. For long-term investors, such corrections often create attractive accumulation opportunities,” Gupta notes.
“During the past cycles, Bitcoin has seen deeper corrections before a reversal towards a new all-time high.”
Speaking on the speculations that bitcoin might tank further, he said, “At current levels, a decline toward the $42,000-$44,000 range appears less likely. For that scenario to unfold, Bitcoin would first need to lose the key $54,000 support amid further macro deterioration and heavy liquidations. Meantime, investors could make regular, consistent investments into the asset based on their risk appetite to generate better risk-adjusted returns over time.”