The ongoing war in Iran and the race to dominate the AI sector will result in money printing that could benefit the crypto ecosystem and push Bitcoin back to its all-time high this year, according to Arthur Hayes, the chief investment officer of crypto investment fund Maelstrom.
In a Substack post on Tuesday, Hayes said the competition between US and China to win the arms race has led both to pursue looser financial conditions and more fiat printing as the technology “directly relates to national security.”
“The combination of the political will to win the AI race and the financial will to fund the build-out with printed money and bank loans produces the perfect environment for crypto,” he said.
Source: Arthur Hayes
“There will be vastly more units of fiat tomorrow than today, and the rate of change is accelerating due to rapidly increasing yearly AI and electrification CAPEX expenditures,” Hayes added.
Most of the crypto sector registered new all-time highs last year, with the market capitalization hitting $4.28 trillion in October, according to CoinMarketCap. However, the market slumped toward the end of last year, and analysts have debated when it will fully recover.
Bitcoin to $126,000 is a “foregone conclusion”
Hayes said war is inflationary and the Iran conflict is no different. Military spending and a shift by nations toward domestic infrastructure investment rather than US Treasurys and equities will lead to further money printing.
He also predicted in March that the US Federal Reserve could ease monetary policy to help finance the country’s conflict with Iran and boost crypto.
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“The politicians support this money printing out of real and perceived necessity. That is why Bitcoin post-February 28th is outperforming the other major risky assets such as gold and US tech stocks,” Hayes added.
Bitcoin has traded between $79,467 and $82,496 over the past seven days, according to CoinGecko. It was trading at about $81,000 as of Wednesday, up more than 31% from its Feb. 6 low of $62,822. Gold was trading around $4,581 at the start of February and has climbed to $4,710 in the same timeframe, for a 2% gain.
Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin has been outperforming other major assets, such as gold, since February. Source: Substack
“Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000, and with a tailwind of trillions of dollars and yuan yet to be created at its back, retaking the $126,000 is a foregone conclusion,” Hayes said.
“I expect the rally to intensify and the haters to cower in the corner as Bitcoin’s upward price trajectory turns explosive after punching through $90,000, where many call over-writers will rush to cover as their strike gets taken out.”
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