Bitcoin (BTC to PKR) retreated 5.5% to $65,950, sparking analyst debate over potential cycle lows. Technical and onchain data suggest BTC may bottom between $30,000 and $45,000 in Q4 2026, as rising exchange reserves and declining “supply in profit” metrics point to mounting bearish pressure.
Multiple analysts caution that Bitcoin’s downtrend could persist for months. Crypto trader Darky noted that the market is roughly 140 days into the current bear cycle, projecting further downside.
“We are going much lower, just a matter of time,” Darky said.
CryptoQuant highlighted that historical post-halving bottoms often form between June and December, with the most likely window around September–November 2026. Fellow analyst Batman confirmed:
“Adding 365–396 days to the October 2025 all-time high puts the BTC cycle bottom around October–November 2026. Whatever price we get by then, it’s a no-brainer buy.”
Bitcoin’s “supply in profit” has fallen to levels last seen in the 2022 bear market, suggesting a potential -70% to -75% drawdown. Overlaying prior cycle behavior, BTC could bottom near $31,500–$38,000 in six months.
Additionally, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) True Cost Basis at $65,700 was breached, raising the risk of capitulation as investors face unrealized losses.
“History suggests Bitcoin is due for a trip down to $42K or lower,” analysts at On-Chain College noted.
Data from CryptoQuant shows BTC balances on exchanges rising to 2.752 million BTC, up roughly 28,489 BTC (+1%) since mid-January. Higher exchange reserves indicate increasing selling pressure and a potential supply overhang.
“Until reserves drop below January lows, structural selling pressure remains intact,” said analyst Axel Adler Jr.
This aligns with bearish market cycles, emphasizing the potential for extended downside before BTC resumes its upward trajectory.
Bitcoin’s current level (~$65,950, ≈ PKR 18.8–19.0 million) could see significant downside if historical patterns hold. Support near $60K may be tested first, but analysts anticipate $30K–$45K as likely cycle lows in late 2026. The market will remain sensitive to exchange reserves and onchain supply metrics for signs of regime change.