Quick Summary
- Bitcoin slipped approximately 3% to $68,500 on Friday, extending weekly losses to 2.7%
- Traders remain cautious ahead of a massive $14 billion BTC options expiration on Deribit, with max pain positioned around $75,000
- Market sentiment reflects extreme pessimism, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index registering 13
- Whales and sharks accumulated 61,568 BTC during the last 30 days amid the downturn
- Despite price weakness, Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.5 billion in net capital over the past month
Bitcoin retreated approximately 3% to settle at $68,507 on Friday, extending a challenging week driven by persistent geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran and an impending $14 billion options expiration event.
The price action mirrored a recurring theme across the past five weeks. President Trump announced a 10-day extension to his Iran ceasefire deadline, initially triggering a modest rally in crypto while crude oil retreated. However, momentum reversed sharply after the Wall Street Journal disclosed that the Pentagon is weighing deployment of up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East region.
Brent crude initially declined 1.3% to $106 per barrel before the military report surfaced. The cryptocurrency market capitalization contracted nearly 1%, falling to $2.4 trillion.
Ethereum dropped 4.6% to $2,050. Solana declined 5.3% to $85.93. XRP retreated 2.8% to $1.36, recording a 6.5% weekly loss. Tron stood as the sole major gainer, advancing 1.2% during the session.
Massive $14 Billion Options Expiration Looms
Approximately $14 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts are scheduled to expire Friday on Deribit exchange. Bloomberg analysts identified the maximum pain threshold near $75,000—the strike price that would render the most contracts worthless at expiration.
Following this expiry event, short-term hedging activity in digital asset markets is anticipated to decline significantly, potentially amplifying Bitcoin’s sensitivity to geopolitical headlines from the Middle East.
Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to sustain levels above $75,000 since regional tensions escalated nearly a month ago. The cryptocurrency remains down approximately 50% from its late-2025 all-time high near $126,000.
Asian equity markets also experienced pressure Friday, declining 0.6%. South Korean technology shares led regional losses, with Samsung and SK Hynix dragging the KOSPI index down 2.3%.
Large Holders Continue Accumulating Through Weakness
Substantial Bitcoin holders are actively acquiring during the downturn. Whales and sharks—classified as addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC—expanded their combined holdings by 0.45% over the past month, accumulating a total of 61,568 BTC, according to blockchain analytics platform Santiment.
Addresses holding less than 0.01 BTC added 213 BTC during the identical timeframe, representing a 0.42% increase.
Dominick John, an analyst at Zeus Research, observed that whales are “quietly stacking during consolidation periods” in anticipation of a potential breakout. He cautioned that excessive retail FOMO could trigger a temporary pullback or correction before the subsequent accumulation cycle begins.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.5 billion in net positive flows over the past month, according to Bloomberg data. BlackRock’s bitcoin exchange-traded fund ranked among the top 2% of all ETFs by year-to-date inflows.
BlackRock highlighted this week that institutional investors are concentrating positions in bitcoin and ethereum while deliberately avoiding exposure to the broader altcoin sector.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 13 on Friday, firmly entrenched in “extreme fear” territory, maintaining consistency with readings observed throughout February and the previous week.
The next critical catalyst arrives in early April, when Trump’s extended Iran ceasefire deadline reaches expiration.
