TLDR:
- Bitcoin rebounded nearly 40% from its late-June low, reigniting the bull versus bear market debate.
- didier cites Bitcoin’s reclaimed 200-day moving average as an early signal of a new bull market.
- Griffin says the bear market persists until dollar liquidity and Treasury yield signals turn clearer.
- Strategy’s STRC is perpetual preferred stock, not traditional debt, easing fears of a forced default.
Bitcoin has climbed roughly 40% from its late-June low. The rally is fueling fresh debate over whether the bear market has ended.
Episode 117 of the WuBlockchain Podcast, published September 2, 2026, featured investor didier and portfolio manager Griffin Ardern.
The two disagreed sharply on where the cycle stands. didier called the move the start of a new bull market. Griffin said the bear market is not yet finished.
Has Bitcoin’s Rally Already Signaled A New Bull Market?
Bitcoin fell briefly below $58,000 in late June before climbing past $81,000. didier called that a gain that marks the opening phase of a bull market. “My view is very clear: this is a bull market, either in its opening phase or very early stages,” he said. He pointed to Bitcoin reclaiming its 200-day moving average as the clearest signal.
Griffin pushed back on that framing. “I think we are still in the middle-to-late stages of a bear market,” he said, “with some distance left before a true bull market begins.” He added that the rally reflected a short squeeze after weeks of thin trading and compressed options volatility.
Both guests agreed the market had been broadly underweight or short before the rally began. Fiscal credibility concerns also pulled capital toward Bitcoin. Griffin flagged rising T-bill issuance as a risk to sovereign credit.
didier said funding costs above 5% are hard for the current debt load to sustain. As yields approach 4.7% to 5%, he expects investors to build positions early. Griffin maintained that a true bull market needs clearer liquidity and Treasury signals before the bear phase ends.
Strategy’s Balance Sheet Adds Another Variable To The Debate
Discussion turned to Strategy, the corporate Bitcoin holder led by Michael Saylor, as a factor in whether momentum can hold. didier explained that STRC, one of Strategy’s preferred-stock products, is perpetual preferred stock rather than traditional debt.
“I made the same mistake at first. I thought STRC was similar to perpetual debt,” he said, noting the terms tell a different story.
Strategy carries around $6.7 billion in convertible bonds, some entering repayment windows this year. didier said cash reserves are growing through stock ATM sales and preferred issuance, aimed at that pressure.
didier outlined three priorities guiding Strategy’s decisions. The first is supporting Bitcoin’s price, since higher prices raise the odds bonds convert into equity. The second is a premium on Strategy’s common stock. The third is pushing STRC back toward $100.
Griffin said Bitcoin increasingly trades as a standalone macro asset. That means trouble at Strategy would not necessarily reverse the rally or confirm the bear market has returned. He described Strategy as functioning more like an asset manager now.
Does Capital Rotation From AI Support The Bull Case?
Both guests weighed whether capital rotating out of a crowded AI trade could extend Bitcoin’s rebound. didier said many AI-focused investors are growing anxious about positioning and are weighing crypto reallocation. Few currently hold meaningful crypto exposure.
didier said short-term capital cannot tolerate months of underperformance the way long-term capital can. If AI corrects while gold and crypto rise, funds may rotate toward less resistance. Crypto positioning is now clean after heavy liquidations.
Looking further out, didier said he does not expect AI to permanently draw capital from blockchain. He argued autonomous machines will eventually need machine-native financial infrastructure. He sees blockchain filling that role, supporting his bull case.
Griffin split his analysis between technology and finance. “AI has clearly pulled talent away from crypto,” he said, “but on the finance side, crypto has continued to make progress.” He pointed to steady gains across payments, trading, compliance, and risk management since 2020.
