Yesterday, the bitcoin price briefly dipped below the $100,000 mark for the first time since June. And due to the dynamics usually at play in terms of bitcoin’s four-year market cycles around halving events, where the amount of new bitcoin issued in each block is cut in half, many analysts are wondering if this latest crypto bull market is over.
Would be funny if people sold because they feared the 4 year cycle already peaked, just to see Bitcoin rip upwards for the next 12 months straight. 🤓
— Samson Mow (@Excellion) November 4, 2025
However, there are also those who claim “this time is different,” and are expecting new all-time highs above $125,000 to be seen within the next year. Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn has revised his expectations for an end of year bitcoin price from $185,000 down to $120,000 due to recent events, and he’s not the only analyst making that sort of adjustment. His recent note points to the likelihood of more moderate market cycles and lower volatility for bitcoin in the future relative to its past history of wild price wings.
While it’s always dangerous to be the person who is claiming things are going to be different this time around, the changing supply and demand dynamics around the bitcoin asset related to the massive infusion of capital from traditional financial institutions reinforces the possibility that the impact halving events’ have on price may be dwindling.
Why This Could Be the End, For Now
In past crypto market cycles, things have tended to get extremely overheated in terms of retail exuberance that eventually led to some disaster event that created extreme fear in the market. For example, the massive 2021 crypto bull market eventually led to overleveraging (and outright fraud) that culminated in the collapse and subsequent bankruptcy of crypto exchange FTX. Four years earlier, it was the popping of the bubble in the initial coin offerings (ICOs) that marked the top of the market.
A few weeks ago, the crypto market experienced the largest liquidation event in its history, at least in nominal terms. And the fallout from that event where more than $20 billion in positions were wiped out is likely not yet fully understood.
Additionally, bitcoin treasury company Sequans recently sold part of its bitcoin stack to fund buybacks to support the stock price. A bitcoin treasury company is basically a company that uses debt to accumulate as much bitcoin as possible as quickly as possible. While other digital asset treasury companies have previously sold non-bitcoin crypto assets, Sequans may be the first example of a purely bitcoin-focused treasury company selling bitcoin, according to CoinDesk.
October 10 2025 was the largest liquidation event in the history of crypto by a big margin. an estimated $20-30b of positions were liquidated. the previous record was $8b.
thus, it shouldn’t be a surprise if a number of funds, incl. those with delta neutral strategies, are…
— Hasu⚡️🤖 (@hasufl) November 4, 2025
While Strategy invented this concept of a bitcoin treasury company during the last crypto market cycle, some analysts have worried about the viability of the large number of copycat companies that are also using debt to take leveraged positions on bitcoin and other crypto assets that have popped up over the past year or two.
These sorts of events combined with the timing roughly lining up with when the current cycle would be expected to end—based on the four-year timeline of previous cycles—have plenty of analysts justifiably spooked.
Why Could This Time Be Different?
Two fundamental reasons some analysts believe this time could be different and the four-year cycle may no longer be relevant are that institutions have brought a whole new level of liquidity to the bitcoin market and the effect halving events have on supply diminishes over time. As Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan stated earlier this year, “The movement of assets into ETFs is a 5-10 year trend. It started in 2024 . . . Broader institutional adoption is just getting started (ETFs still being approved on national account platforms, pensions and endowments just now considering crypto, etc.).”
With the development of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the growing use of bitcoin as a reserve asset by major companies and even nation states (not in the leveraged manner as the aforementioned bitcoin treasury companies), it’s clear that the supply and demand dynamics at play here may be quite different than what was seen at lower price levels in previous cycles.
Great read, aligns with The Great Rotation idea I’ve covered over recent months
The sell-side pressure exerted by existing Bitcoin holders is tremendous
Avg spent coin-age this cycle is 100-days, up from 30-days typical.
The buyers, are patient, sophisticated, and very large. https://t.co/tjm7ghKsnm pic.twitter.com/7Nb65Yoju0
— _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) November 1, 2025
Another factor to consider is the general lack of a so-called “altseason” so far this cycle, which is when smaller crypto assets start to massively outperform bitcoin in a market hysteria that usually marks the final stage of a crypto bull market. Bitcoin market dominance currently sits at 73.7%, according to Bitbo, which isn’t far off the cycle high of 78.5%.
There are also signs that much of the more centralized aspects of the crypto industry could increasingly be merged into the existing, traditional fintech space, which may indicate a healthy move away from decentralization theater and towards a more mature market.