As the ongoing US-Iran conflict drives Brent crude oil prices sharply higher, BitMEX co-founder and crypto billionaire Arthur Hayes expects a money printing bailout by the US Federal Reserve. Will this trigger a Bitcoin rally?
Arthur Hayes Says US-Iran War Could Trigger Fed Money Printing
The US-Iran war has sent crude oil prices higher by nearly 20% amid fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East. In an X post on March 6, Arthur Hayes warns rising oil prices will send 10-year Treasury yields and the MOVE Index higher.
Historically, such conditions have forced money printing by the Federal Reserve to fund war-related spending. Notably, this would create a bullish tailwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets in the medium to long-term.
If Brent oil (green) keeps ripping due to US-Iran war, 10-yr yields might spike in a volatile way forcing MOVE Index higher and that is a prereq for a money printing bailout. Still early doors but something to watch.
While US President Donald Trump earlier confirmed the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East would continue for weeks, the Trump admin announced actions to keep oil prices down. Also, the US issued a 30-day waiver to allow India to buy Russian oil. Crude oil prices dropped more than 1% to $80 today.
How Bitcoin Could React?
Fed money printers have historically triggered upside momentum in Bitcoin as it brings liquidity. Currently, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market are lagging due to thin liquidity and bear market speculation.
Arthur Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Arthur Hayes advises waiting for confirmed signs of Fed rate cuts or balance sheet expansion before buying Bitcoin and altcoins.
However, crypto market participants are also considering rising inflation concerns, which could push Fed rate cut odds to drop further. CME FedWatch Tool shows potential Fed rate cut in September.
Analysts predict a short-term recovery to $75,000-$80,000 if Bitcoin holds key support levels. Ali Martinez highlights $70,685 as a major support level.
The $70,685 level represented a major support cluster for Bitcoin $BTC. If that area holds, the supply between roughly $72,000 and $81,000 becomes relatively light.
In other words, if momentum builds, there is open air in that range. https://t.co/9AqE9c1kZd pic.twitter.com/YJIGRSSjfO
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 6, 2026