TLDR
- Bitcoin price up 3.6% in 24 hours, nearing previous ATH of $123,000
- New Bitcoin addresses hit one-year high of 364,126 daily
- Analysts expect strong post-halving rally in August and Q4
- July CPI expected to increase 0.3%, showing continued inflation pressure
- Bitcoin ETFs ended four-day outflow streak with $91.6 million inflows
Bitcoin’s price is surging closer to a new all-time high as traders anticipate crucial inflation data this week. BTC has climbed 3.6% in the past 24 hours, reaching above $122,000 and approaching its previous record of $123,000.
The cryptocurrency market is showing renewed strength after a week of consolidation below $115,000. Bitcoin’s recent upward movement has formed a strong green candle on the charts as bulls regain control.
Market watchers note the reappearance of the Golden Cross pattern on Bitcoin charts, a technical indicator that has historically preceded further price increases. This pattern, combined with Bitcoin’s post-halving cycle dynamics, has many analysts expecting the rally to continue.
On-chain data reveals healthy network growth, with 364,126 new Bitcoin addresses created daily – the highest level in a year according to analyst Ali Martinez. This metric suggests increasing adoption and network participation.
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen points to historical trends showing that Bitcoin tends to perform well in August during post-halving years. His analysis suggests Bitcoin will close the month in positive territory.
Market Dynamics and Technical Factors
The weekend rally has erased losses from the previous week, with Bitcoin gaining 4.5% since Saturday. This upward momentum has Bitcoin trading just below its July 14 all-time high of $122,838.
Derivatives data shows increasing open interest with a rise of 7,834 BTC alongside higher spot and perpetual buying volumes. Analysts interpret this as a sign that the move has been primarily fueled by speculative long positioning.
Sean Dawson, head of research at on-chain options platform Dervie, expects Bitcoin to reach “$150,000 before the end of the year” based on volatility data.
The cryptocurrency’s price action has shown increased correlation with traditional risk assets, particularly NASDAQ stocks. This relationship helps explain recent movements, with both markets responding to similar macroeconomic factors.
Economic Data and Fed Policy Expectations
All eyes are now on the upcoming July Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due Tuesday. Economists expect a slight increase in the annual inflation rate to 2.8%, up 0.3% from the previous month.
Rising inflation is partly attributed to the effect of Trump tariffs, which are beginning to impact consumer prices in areas like household furnishings and recreational goods.
Market participants are also watching for signals about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. According to Polymarket data, two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points are considered most likely at 40% probability for September’s FOMC meeting.
However, since recent jobs data revisions, the likelihood of three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points has increased from 8% to over 23% in the past week.
A softer-than-expected inflation print could strengthen expectations for a Fed rate cut as early as September, which would likely support Bitcoin prices. Crypto markets typically perform well in low-interest-rate environments.
Bitcoin ETFs have shown renewed investor confidence, ending a four-day streak of outflows by pulling in $91.6 million according to data from Farside Investors. This reversal comes after last week’s outflows, which analysts attributed to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance.
Despite the overall bullish outlook, some traders are positioning defensively. Increased demand for put options suggests rising concern over a potential upside surprise in the inflation data, which could trigger a “mini panic” and lead to a “sharp downturn.”
Bitcoin’s current rally positions it as a potential hedge against inflation, with many investors turning to the cryptocurrency during periods of economic uncertainty.
The next two weeks will be crucial for Bitcoin as key economic data and policy decisions unfold. With its previous all-time high in sight, market participants remain watchful for factors that could influence Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months.
