Bitcoin (BTC) trades at half its record price. XRP (XRP) has lost roughly 73% from its own peak. Four events this week could decide whether either one escapes that range.
Both drifted lower again over the past seven days. Washington delivers a presidential crypto meeting, Federal Reserve minutes and a debut regulator panel. Japan adds two data prints.
1. Trump Meets Crypto Leaders at the White House on Wednesday
Trump is expected to attend in person. The heads of both US market regulators are also expected. Paul Atkins runs the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Michael Selig runs the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Executives from Coinbase, Ripple, Kalshi and Polymarket are on the guest list. The last two run prediction markets, where users trade contracts on real-world outcomes.
One stalled bill sits under the whole agenda. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act would settle which regulator polices which token.
The House passed it on July 17, 2025, by 294 votes to 134. No Republican opposed it, and 78 Democrats backed it.
That support has not carried to the Senate. The bill needs 60 votes there. Lawmakers broke for the August recess without scheduling one, pushing the decision to September.
XRP has tracked the bill more closely than any other major token. Its record high of $3.65 landed roughly ten minutes after that House vote.
The token has fallen about 73% since. It now holds the $1 level by a single cent.
2. Fed Minutes Could Reset the Rate Path for Bitcoin and XRP
Minutes from the July meeting arrive at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday. They cover the session where the Fed left rates at 3.5% to 3.75%.
The vote was 9-3. Three officials wanted a quarter-point increase instead, which is a rare split for a single meeting.
Traders are not convinced they will get one. Fed funds futures put the odds of a September hike near 32%.
Minutes showing wider support for tightening would move that number. Higher rates pull money out of risky assets, and crypto sits at the far end of that queue.
A second read follows on Friday. S&P Global publishes flash surveys of US business activity at 9.45 a.m. ET, meaning early estimates built on partial responses.
Weak numbers would revive slowdown talk. Strong ones would back whatever hawkish signal the minutes carry.
3. The CFTC Opens Its First Crypto Panel on Thursday
The agency’s Innovation Advisory Committee meets at 1 p.m. ET in Washington. The session streams live and is the committee’s first.
Its 35-member roster explains the stakes. Crypto chiefs from Coinbase, Ripple, Kraken and Gemini sit beside the heads of CME Group, Nasdaq and Intercontinental Exchange.
Ripple boss Brad Garlinghouse holds one of those seats. How the panel discusses digital commodities therefore feeds straight into XRP’s status.
That label is not casual. The SEC and CFTC sorted crypto into five buckets in March, and digital commodities was one of them. Tokens in that bucket answer to the CFTC rather than the SEC.
“For far too long, American builders, innovators, and entrepreneurs have awaited clear guidance on the status of crypto assets under the federal securities and commodity laws,” read an excerpt in the statement, citing Michael Selig, CFTC Chairman.
Both agencies acted without waiting for Congress. That precedent matters now, because it shows regulators can move while a bill sits still.
Bitcoin has less riding on Thursday. Regulators have treated it as a commodity for years, but the stakes are higher for XRP.
4. Japan Bookends the Week With Growth and Inflation Data
Japan reports second-quarter growth on Monday. ING expects 0.5% against the previous quarter.
July inflation follows on Friday. ING forecasts 2.0%, which would put Japan back at its central bank’s target.
Both prints feed one decision. The Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1% in June, the highest since 1995. It meets again on September 18.
Traders price roughly 80% odds of another hike, according to Reuters. That is more than double the odds they give the Fed.
Higher Japanese rates lift the yen. That squeezes the carry trade, where investors borrow cheap yen and buy higher-returning assets elsewhere.
The pattern has bitten before. Bitcoin fell between 20% and 31% after each recent BOJ hike.
Not everyone still buys the link. Apollo Global Management argues the old rule tying the yen to rate gaps has broken down. Bitcoin barely moved this month when the yen jumped more than 5% in two sessions.
What Would Have to Break
Bitcoin trades near $63,000, about half its October record of $126,080. XRP slipped below $1.00, sixth by market value. Both slipped over the past week. Bitcoin lost 3.2% and XRP 3.8%.
Neither has escaped its range in weeks. Four catalysts now have five sessions to hand traders a reason.