- Oil above $100 is pushing U.S. fuel prices sharply higher, with diesel reaching a record $6.30 per gallon and gasoline averaging about $4.36.
- Oil-market buffers are rapidly disappearing, with global inventories down 507 million barrels since February as Middle East and Russian supply disruptions intensify.
- Fuel prices could remain elevated in the coming months, as tight diesel supplies collide with rising seasonal demand, increasing costs for freight, businesses and consumers.
Oil markets appear to have reached the inflection point that many analysts had predicted weeks ago as the Middle East conflict re-escalated with no diplomatic push in sight and global inventories continue to slump.
Oil prices are back above $100 per barrel, lifting diesel and gasoline prices, including in the United States.
The Trump Administration is looking to downplay the price spikes it sees as only temporary. Prices would “drop like a rock” when the Iran war ends, U.S. President Donald Trump said, but he appears to have acknowledged that there may be no respite before the mid-term elections in early November.
Meanwhile, the record-high diesel prices and the highest gasoline prices for this time of year on record could do damage to the economy and consumer spending.
On Tuesday evening, the U.S. average diesel price hit $6.301 per gallon while gasoline prices jumped to an average of $4.355 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data.
“Diesel could hit $6.60/gal in a few days, surpassing the inflation-adjusted peak seen in 2022,” said Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy.
At the end of last week, diesel prices in the U.S. topped $6 per gallon for the first time ever.
There is no path in sight toward significant declines in the short term, oil industry executives say, after warning for weeks the market is heading for a fuel crunch.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said on Friday that the market buffers have now been “played out” and oil prices could rise further over the coming months.
“It’s harder to envision a scenario where prices soften and quickly,” Wirth said, as carried by Reuters.
“I think the risks remain to the upside over the next few months.”
“I wish I could tell you that I saw some reason why things would ease, but it’s difficult right now to see that happen,” Wirth said at an event in Texas, cited by the Wall Street Journal.
The diesel markets are roiled by the wars in Iran and Ukraine, which stifle product supply out of the Middle East and Russia, while Chinese fuel exports have yet to meaningfully rebound following months of restrictions to protect domestic supply.
In the coming months, the markets will have to face the re-escalation in the Middle East and the shutdown of a key Saudi oil pipeline that helps the Kingdom bypass the Strait of Hormuz with depleted buffers amid rapidly drawing inventories.
Global observed oil inventories plunged by a further 95 million barrels in August, bringing cumulative draws since February to 507 million barrels, or 2.8 million bpd on average, the IEA said last week in its monthly report for September.
Additionally, oil on water volumes declined by 65 million barrels as tanker traffic out of the Middle East came under renewed attacks, the IEA said.
The U.S. Administration says the price spike is temporary.
“The prices in the prior administration were this high anyway,” Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said at a G-20 event in Houston earlier this week.
The Administration’s two big bets on lowering prices—significantly higher oil production from Venezuela and higher U.S. refining capacity—will not help to ease oil and fuel prices in the short term, certainly not ahead of the midterms.
Diesel prices reflect the downstream strain in the oil markets, and they are set to increase in the coming weeks as demand in the harvest, heating, and holiday seasons will rise.
Gasoline prices are high and often steal headlines, but the spike in diesel prices creates ripple effects on the economy.
Diesel is “a behind-the-scenes cost for businesses. Diesel powers freight and heavy equipment, so when prices jump, that may raise the cost of making and delivering everyday goods,” analysts at JPMorgan said this week.