Bitcoin (BTC) price could post volatile moves ahead of a potential rate hike during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 15-16.
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that 86.5% of investors expect the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points. At the same time, President Trump wants the Fed to instead cut rates.
Goldman Sachs notes that the chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, will abide by the market expectations. If he hikes rates, it could set him on a collision course with President Trump.
On-chain data now suggests that investors could be de-risking ahead of the Fed’s rate decision.
BTC price is up by 1.52% to trades at $77.953 at the time of writing. The trading volumes were also up by 44% to $18.97 billion, per CoinMarketCap data.
Bitcoin Investors De-Risk Ahead of FOMC
Data from Santiment shows that Bitcoin’s open interest has dropped by 13.5% from 321,497 BTC on September 3 to 278,151 BTC on September 11.
During the same period, Bitcoin price moved by 5% between $76,000 and $81,000, suggesting that the 13.5% decline in OI was not only because of falling prices, but also because of traders closing futures positions.
Santiment adds that the falling OI suggests that investors have already made their move and are exiting the market ahead of two main events this week: the CLARITY Act vote and the FOMC rate decision.
Warsh Set to Hike Rates Despite Trump’s Threat
Data from CoinGape prediction markets shows that there is an 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates on September 16. The odds have been rising since the ECB also hiked rates.
Goldman Sachs is also expecting Warsh to hike rates, and not because US inflation is high, but because the market is expecting him to. Bitcoin price is barely reacting to this potential hike amid a 1.64% gain at press time, suggesting the event may already be priced in.
However, President Trump recently said that the US should have the lowest interest rate in the world because the country has strong credit that justifies a lower borrowing cost.
A previous report by CoinGape also noted that Trump threatened to halt trade with all the countries that have a trade deficit with the US unless the Fed trims rates.
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool shows that there is a 0% chance that the Fed trims rates, suggesting that the market expects Warsh to defy Trump’s wishes.
In an X post, the Kobeissi Letter says that if President Trump follows through on this threat, the US will cut off trade with around 50% of its trading partners, a move that could create an economic shock and cause a sharp drop in Bitcoin price.
Investors Dump Bitcoin ETFs as Fed Decision Looms
Data from SoSoValue shows that Bitcoin ETFs have recorded outflows for four straight days since September 8.
Bitcoin ETFs also recorded $462.73 million in outflows in the week between September 7 and September 11, with that being the highest weekly outflows seen since July 2026.
The outflows could also suggest that institutional investors were exiting the market ahead of the looming interest rate decision.
Despite these outflows, Bitcoin price remains above the support at $76,500, with the fear and greed index, with a reading of 57, also suggests that the sentiment is still bullish.
Bitcoin Price Breaks Key Resistance, But Weak Momentum Threatens Rally
Bitcoin price is testing the resistance at $77,800. However, BTC has yet to close above this resistance because of weak momentum.
The RSI reading of 53 suggests that the momentum is slightly bullish. Still, the RSI has yet to make a higher high to support a bullish long-term Bitcoin price outlook.
The ADX line that is also tipping south, suggests that the uptrend is weak, and Bitcoin price could fail to break out above this obstacle at $77,800.
CryptoQuant data also shows that there is weak spot demand for Bitcoin, suggesting that the current trend lacks solid underlying support.
If the demand fails to return ahead of the FOMC meeting, Bitcoin price could drop to the support at $76,800.