By Barbara Kollmeyer
Bernstein sees bitcoin as a leading ‘hard asset’ in the so-called debasement trade
Bernstein analysts say bitcoin could reach $300,000 or even $500,000 by 2029.
Bitcoin stirred to life last week as a bond rout revived talk of the debasement trade.
That trade is based on the view that investors will turn to alternative assets like gold or bitcoin on worries that stubborn government deficits and higher inflation will debase currencies like the dollar.
Our call of the day from Bernstein analysts forecasts bitcoin (BTCUSD) will reach its next peak of $300,000 by the end of 2029 – and their most bullish case puts that target at $500,000. They expect the crypto to recover to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027, vs. current prices just under $80,000.
A team of analysts led by Gautam Chhugani told clients in a note on Wednesday that bitcoin will benefit as a 40-year run of falling interest rates ends, and governments are saddled with rising debt-servicing costs and unprecedented sovereign debt levels. Rising bond yields are only adding to government problems with rising interest expenses and increasing borrowing needs, they added.
“While governments are already using measures to manage bond markets and contain yield pressures, these interventions only address symptoms rather than the underlying debt burden,” said Chhugani and his team. Given the choice between fiscal stress and currency debasement, they expect the less politically- disruptive latter choice will be the favorite.
“Hence, investors will potentially benefit from owning scarce assets such as bitcoin that cannot be easily created/diluted,” they said.
Bernstein sees bitcoin in a strong position to be a leading “hard asset” partly due to its strong investor base. The crypto pulled back 50% after its October 2025 peak, but 60% of holders haven’t budged the last 12 months, analysts said. Increased access for institutional and retail, and a favorable regulatory environment will also drive more interest in bitcoin, they added.
The analysts laid out an “an accelerated bull case” for bitcoin, driven by macro tailwinds in which institutional capital could start actively chasing the crypto asset. Under that, bitcoin could peak even higher at $500,000 by 2029, along with a rapid recovery to all-time highs of $200,000 by mid-2027. Bernstein is sticking to a $1 million bitcoin price by 2033.
They explained that the bitcoin cycle is made up of a four-year cycle – breakout, hype, correction and accumulate. Their base case is based on this cycle, which they said is tracking so far.
How did Bernstein come up with its valuation for bitcoin? The analysts define their price as a multiple of marginal cost – the cost of the least efficient miner – of the last two cycles, from 2016 to 2019 and 2020 to 2023. The peak of $125,000 in October 2025 was at a cycle high of 1.4 times marginal cost.
Their base case holds that the 2029 peak of $300,000 will be reached with a multiple of 1.25 marginal cost, and the $1 million 2033 peak via a multiple of 1.2 times.
Their bull case would see that marginal cost expand to 2 times due to currency debasement and capital flow into hard assets. Their analysis suggests this will see bitcoin recover to a previous all-time high of $125,000 by the end of 2026, $200,000 by mid-2027 and a higher peak of $500,000 by 2029.
Bernstein also updated its forecast for Strategy (MSTR), the largest corporate owner of bitcoin. They maintain an outperform rating on the stock, but lowered the price target to $350 from $450 per share.
If bitcoin strength continues and Strategy’s preferred stock (STRC) recovers back to its face value of $100, then Strategy could go “kinetic again with bitcoin purchases,” said Chhugani and his team. That bitcoin buying could help drive a 30% premium for Strategy above the cash value of its bitcoin holdings by June 2027, they said.
The markets
U.S. stock futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are mostly higher, led by tech as investors cheer Nvidia results. Longer-term Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD30Y BX:TMUBMUSD10Y are edging up and oil prices (CL.1) are flat.
Key asset performance Last 5d 1m YTD 1y S&P 500 7675.7 -0.42% 4.91% 12.13% 18.43% Nasdaq Composite 26,130.20 -0.76% 6.90% 12.43% 21.03% 10-year Treasury 4.673 -3.30 -0.40 50.10 46.40 Gold 4636.3 1.34% 11.37% 7.02% 33.35% Oil 82 -4.88% -2.33% 42.83% 27.49% Data: MarketWatch. Treasury yields change expressed in basis points
The buzz
Nvidia stock (NVDA) is up 7% after the AI chip giant posted strong earnings and revenue forecast. Micron stock (MU) is up 4%. Separately, Nvidia reportedly agreed to buy open-source AI hub Hugging Face.
Salesforce stock (CRM) is jumping after the software giant posted an earnings beat fueled by demand for its agentic-AI tools.
CrowdStrike shares (CRWD) are also surging after the cybersecurity group’s record-breaking quarter.
HP (HPQ) reporting higher revenue, but lower unit sales volume for PC business, and said memory costs are still an issue. The stock is down.
Best Buy (BBY), Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Dollar General (DG) will report ahead of the open followed by Marvell (MRVL) and Autodesk (ADSK) after the close.
Weekly jobless claims are due at 8:30 a.m., along with the trade deficit for July. The Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium kicks off, though Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote speech will be on Friday.
Think Treasurys are having a rough summer? It’s even uglier abroad.
Top tickers
These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:
Ticker Security name NVDA Nvidia MU Micron SPCX SpaceX TSLA Tesla AMZN Amazon TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing AMD Advanced Micro Devices AAPL Apple META Meta SNDK Sandisk
-Barbara Kollmeyer
This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
08-27-26 0654ET
Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.