Strategy reports its Q2 2026 earnings this week, and the numbers going in are not comfortable. Bitcoin is trading near $65,000, down roughly 50 percent from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000.
The company holds 843,775 BTC on its balance sheet, acquired at an average price of $75,476 per coin. The math on that unrealized loss runs to billions.
But the earnings test this quarter is about more than Bitcoin’s price. It is about whether the business model built around that Bitcoin position is still functioning the way Saylor always said it would.
The “never sell” pledge that is no longer intact
This is the number that matters going into the print. As I covered for TheStreet in July, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million between June 29 and July 5, the second Bitcoin sale this year after the first since 2022 occurred in May.
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The proceeds went to fund preferred stock distributions and replenish the USD reserve.
For most of its history, Strategy’s identity was built on a one-way accumulation commitment. Saylor himself addressed the shift at BTC Prague in June, telling that the “never sell” advice was aimed at individual retail holders, not at how a Bitcoin treasury company manages its capital structure.
The explanation is coherent. But it represents a meaningful shift from the narrative that built MSTR’s premium valuation.
What the Q2 print actually needs to show
The market will be watching three specific numbers. First, the unrealized loss on the Bitcoin position, at current prices that figure runs well above $10 billion.
Second, whether the USD reserve has held at or above the $3 billion level announced in June, which signals the company can service its $1.76 billion in annual preferred dividend obligations without further Bitcoin sales.
Third, whether Saylor gives any guidance on the pace of future Bitcoin purchases.
Analyst Ali Martinez, whose comparison of Strategy’s debt structure to Terra/Luna I covered for TheStreet in June, noted that the structural pressure becomes most dangerous precisely when Bitcoin is under selling pressure. That condition exists right now.
Saylor has called 2026 “the most exciting year in the history of Bitcoin.” That may yet be true. But Q2 earnings is where the market decides whether it believes the business model is strong enough to get there.
Related: Tesla sends a quiet but powerful message on Bitcoin
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Jul 27, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.