This year is shaping up to be one of the most disappointing ever for investors in Bitcoin (BTC +0.61%). The world’s top cryptocurrency is down nearly 30% in 2026 and shows no signs of turning around anytime soon. As a result, many investors are now avoiding it entirely.
But that would be a mistake. There are two good reasons Bitcoin could prove its doubters wrong and hit $100,000 by the end of the year.
Bitcoin’s quarterly returns
Bitcoin typically saves its best for last. In this context, it means that it typically performs best in the final quarter of the year.
Based on data dating back to 2013, it has delivered average returns of 77% and median returns of 48% in the fourth quarter. That’s better than any other quarter of the year, and it’s not even close.
Today’s Change
(0.61%) $388.15
Current Price
$64229.00
Key Data Points
Market Cap
$1.3T
Day’s Range
$63397.00 – $64287.00
52wk Range
$59227.73 – $126079.89
Volume
17.9B
So, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that Bitcoin continues to meander along in the $60,000 to $70,000 range over the next few months. As long as it can enter the final quarter of the year trading near the higher end of that range, it can easily clear the $100,000 price hurdle with a final year-end push. That gives you an idea of just how explosive the digital coin can be.
Image source: Getty Images.
Just keep in mind, though, that historical performance is no guarantee of future results. In 2025, Bitcoin uncharacteristically turned in one of its worst fourth quarters ever, falling by 23%. More of the same could be coming in 2026, especially if the highly anticipated initial public offerings from Anthropic and OpenAI siphon investor money and attention away from crypto.
The popping of the AI bubble
The other factor that could lead to blowout gains for Bitcoin in the second half of the year is one that many investors would rather not talk about: the bursting of the artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.
According to longtime crypto investor Arthur Hayes, that might be the only way to stop investors from obsessing over AI while neglecting Bitcoin. If the AI bubble pops, then money could flood into the crypto market once again, Hayes says.
Certainly, it’s quite possible that cash-burning AI companies are overvalued right now. According to a Goldman Sachs research report from Oct. 2025, the AI market is showing many of the classic signs of being in a bubble.
And Bitcoin (a.k.a. digital gold) would be a reasonable place to move a lot of those assets in case of an AI downturn.
Only a 17% chance?
Admittedly, Bitcoin’s chances of hitting $100,000 this year are relatively small. On the Polymarket prediction market platform, for example, Bitcoin has only a 17% chance of reclaiming the $100,000 price level in 2026. By comparison, it has a 35% chance of falling below $40,000, a 15% chance of falling below $30,000, and a 7% chance of crashing below $20,000. Yikes!
Those are some risky predictions, and maybe it’s better simply to invest in AI. But I’ll take my chances — and the betting markets aren’t always right. Bitcoin has historically been very cyclical, and it’s only a matter of time before it begins to recover. I’m confident that it can get back to the $100,000 price level by the end of the year.