Key Highlights:
- Japan’s Nikkei surged past 67,000 for the first time, rising 1.1% to 67,038.24 (intraday high 67,231.28), led by AI-linked stocks.
- rose from multi-week lows on Monday as hopes for a Middle East peace deal dimmed, with the up 3.5 bps to 2.69% after touching 2.635% on Friday. Ten‑year JGB futures fell 0.27 yen to 128.62 (yields rise when prices fall). The Iran conflict’s energy shock has fanned global inflation concerns, pushing yields higher worldwide.
- Asian markets extended their rally on Monday as AI-driven buying outweighed Gulf tensions and higher oil prices. South Korea rose 4.2% (after an 8% jump last week), Taiwan rallied nearly 6% last week, and MSCI’s Asia‑Pacific ex‑Japan index added 1.6%.
- Oil climbed on Monday after strikes between Iran and the U.S. and Israel’s troop movements into Lebanon amid fighting with Hezbollah. rose $2.57 (2.93%) to $89.92 a barrel and added $1.42 (2.25%) to $93.34 as of 1:52 am ET.
- The US dollar held steady on Monday after a weekly decline as markets watched Middle East peace talks and central bank signals. edged up 0.04% to 99.05 following a 0.4% drop last week.The euro fell 0.13% to $1.1644, the yen weakened 0.13% to 159.48 per US dollar, and sterling slipped 0.07% to $1.3449. Oil-driven geopolitics helped lift risk and volatility.
- Gold dipped on Monday, pressured by a firmer US dollar and rising crude as investors awaited President Donald Trump’s decision on a proposed ceasefire deal with Iran. fell 0.41% to $4,519.28 per ounce (as of 01:59 am ET), while slipped 1% to $4,547.70.
U.S. stock futures rose overnight ahead of Monday trading after a blockbuster May pushed major indexes to fresh records. As of 12:29 a.m. ET, futures were up 0.08%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.24% and futures climbed 0.51%.
Investors remain watchful for further strength following the strong month, while the conflict with Iran shows little progress as it enters its fourth month.
The S&P 500 notched its ninth straight weekly gain and the Nasdaq its eighth in nine weeks as stocks closed out a strong May. Nasdaq led with an 8%+ monthly gain, S&P 500 rose about 5% and Dow nearly 3%. Distribution days remain low, with just two each on the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
Technology stocks stayed buoyant on continued AI optimism, though the chip rally cooled slightly last week. Beyond the conflict in the Middle East, attention this week turns to key labor-market data for fresh economic cues.
Decliners outpaced advancers on the NYSE by about 1.04-to-1, with 491 new highs and 102 new lows recorded. On the Nasdaq, 2,378 stocks rose and 2,486 fell, giving declining issues a roughly 1.05-to-1 edge over advancers.
The S&P 500 logged 27 new 52-week highs and 12 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite notched 125 new highs and 54 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges totaled 23.9 billion shares, above the 20-day average of 19.36 billion.
U.S. data showed inflation accelerated in April at the fastest pace in three years, while first-quarter GDP was revised down to a 1.6% annualized gain.
Fed officials warned of upside inflation risks, Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid said the energy shock may not be temporary, and Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said persistent inflation could require tighter policy. Money markets largely expect the Fed to hold rates this year, pricing in a 25 basis-point hike in December.
US Economic Data and Earnings Calendar:
This week, attention shifts from Wall Street to Main Street as big tech and retail earnings arrive ahead of Friday’s May jobs report. Recent hiring surprises in April and May have economists split. Some see a labor-market rebound, others blame sector-specific demand (notably healthcare) or effects from the Iran war, leaving the data hard to interpret.
Unemployment is still low by historical standards, but job searching has become tougher. About 25% of unemployed people have been looking for work for over a year, a recent survey shows.
Investors will review key earnings before the jobs report, including Dollar General () and Five Below () for consumer trends among lower-income households, and tech names like Palo Alto Networks (), CrowdStrike () and Broadcom (). Palo Alto Networks will announce fiscal Q3 2026 results on Tuesday, June 2, 2026.
Economic Calendar: (Week of June 01 – 05)
Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak during the week.
Monday June 1
Tuesday June 2
Wednesday June 3
- ; business inventories; EIA crude oil inventories; factory orders; ; MBA mortgage applications.
Thursday June 4
- and ; EIA natural gas inventories; revised productivity; revised unit labor costs.
Friday June 5
- ; unemployment rate; average hourly earnings; average workweek; consumer credit.
Click here to see a more detailed economic calendar.
Key Earnings Calendar: (Week of June 01 -05)
Monday June 1
Tuesday June 2
- DG, DCI, GTLB, ODD, PANW, SIG, ULTA, VSCO
Wednesday June 3
- AVGO, CRWD, DSGX, FIVE, M, MDT, OLLI, PVH, THO, VEEV
Thursday June 4
- AGX, BF/B, CAL, CIEN, COO, DOCU, LULU, PL, RBRK, IOT, TTAN, TTC
Friday June 5
Click here to see a more detailed earnings calendar.
Broadcom (AVGO) will report fiscal Q2 results late Wednesday. Wall Street expects EPS of about $2.39–$2.40 (+51% y/y) on roughly $22B revenue (+47%). Analysts see growth accelerating into fiscal Q3–Q4 (profits +88%/+92%, sales +77%/+83%), with FactSet consensus projecting fiscal 2026 EPS up 65% and revenue up 62% and continued strong gains into fiscal 2027.
Cybersecurity names CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) surged in May ahead of earnings. Palo Alto reports fiscal Q3 on Tuesday, CrowdStrike on Wednesday. Both have expanded cloud platforms via acquisitions. Some peers face pressure over potential competition from AI model builders like Anthropic and OpenAI; firms generally expect generative AI to create both new threats and defense opportunities.
Discount retailer Five Below (FIVE) leads three bargain chains reporting next week. FIVE is projected to post 19% same-store sales growth and about $1.226B in revenue. Dollar General (DG) faces pressure to match rival Dollar Tree’s () strong results, which lifted DLTR shares 18%.
Credo Technology () will report fiscal Q4 late Monday. Analysts expect adjusted EPS of $1.02 (+191% y/y) on revenue of $431.8M (+154%). Shares are up 59% year-to-date and have rebounded 145% since late March.
Weekly US Indices Probability Map:
- The U.S. weekly market probability map for June 01 -05, 2026 suggests “Historically, bulls dominate the market in the first week of June.”.
- These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
- Sentiment readings are derived from a seasonality-based scoring system.
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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, & Fund Management. He is the founder of www.twtlearning.com providing financial education, research and advisory services to fund & hedge fund managers and family offices.
He has been trading FX, FX options, US stocks & options, Indices, Commodities & Oil, and Metals Futures. He has a CMT charter, an AAPTA membership, and a CMT Canada membership. He has worked in various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.
He is regarded as an excellent mentor and has trained more than 2000+ users in North America, Gulf countries & Asia on financial markets & products, active and passive trading, and technical analysis strategies. He emanated technical analysis daily and weekly reports for BridgeNews Chicago bureau and updated technical analysis reports on Bloomberg and Reuters while working with ABN Amro bank treasury & capital markets. Has moderated and produced technical analysis reports for Thomson Reuters (Refinitiv) users’ chat rooms and trained users on technical analysis techniques and models. Conducted TA & Global Markets outlook workshop with central banks, sovereign funds, global & regional banks & family offices.