Can Bitcoin Reclaim $100k This Year After Slipping Below $80k? AI Models Weigh In

Quick Read

• Bitcoin trades around $77,000, well below the $100,000 mark it held most of last year. We asked four AI models to weigh in on whether BTC could still reach $100K this year.

• ChatGPT held its Bitcoin forecast of $110,000-$150,000, Grok trimmed from $250,000 down to $130,000-$180,000, and Gemini cut from $220,000 to $100,000-$140,000—all three still see Bitcoin reclaiming $100K, but each model now adds specific conditions tied to the CLARITY Act and the Fed under new Chairman Kevin Warsh.

• Claude remains the only major AI model that doesn’t see Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2026, sticking with its $75,000-$95,000 range and citing the 200-day moving average rejection at $82,455 plus the March 2022 parallel as confirmation that the cycle top is already in.

• Polymarket traders give Bitcoin roughly 51% odds of hitting $100,000 by year-end and 87% odds of holding above $80,000.

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Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) trades around $77,000, which is well below the $100,000 mark it held for most of last year. Last week, the Bitcoin price was pushing toward $82,000 as the CLARITY Act moved through the Senate. However, despite the bill advancing, the Bitcoin price lost the $80,000 and $78,000 support levels. If a regulatory win that big can’t lift BTC back to $80,000, what would it actually take to get to $100,000 this year?

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Two months ago, when the Bitcoin price was near $73,000, we asked five AI models if Bitcoin would reclaim $100,000 in 2026. Four said yes, with only Claude saying no. With BTC now back below $80K, we asked the AI models again if the price could still hit $100K again this year.

ChatGPT Still Sees Bitcoin Hitting $150K Bitcoin 

ChatGPT is sticking with its March forecast. The AI model still sees Bitcoin trading between $110,000 and $150,000 by year-end, with $180,000 as the bullish case. ChatGPT thinks most of the damage came from one bad day. On May 13, the Bank of Japan signaled foreign bond dumps, PPI came in hot at 6%, and Kevin Warsh got confirmed as Fed Chair—all in 24 hours. That was a one-day pile-up of bad news, not institutions actually leaving. 

Moreso, ETF demand is doing the heavy lifting. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $3.29 billion across March and April, with institutions buying up what’s left after the April 2024 halving cut new BTC issuance in half. Last week’s outflows erased $1.26 billion of that, but cumulative inflows since January 2024 still stand at $58.5 billion. However, ChatGPT treats one-week flow reversals as noise, not real signal.

ChatGPT’s bull forecast now depends on two events that weren’t on the calendar in March. First is the CLARITY Act, which needs 60 votes on the Senate floor in June. The committee vote was always going to clear, but the real fight is the Senate floor. 

Second is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC meeting in June. Markets are split on whether Warsh will deliver the rate cuts Trump wants, especially with inflation running hot. If Warsh’s June meeting sounds more hawkish than expected, Bitcoin could compress for the rest of 2026. Without both events, ChatGPT sees the Bitcoin price capping at $110K-$120K this year—that still clears $100K, but barely.

Grok Cut Its $250K Bitcoin Call to $180K After Failed Rallies

Grok had the most optimistic Bitcoin forecast in March. Its top-end scenario had Bitcoin hitting $250,000 if conditions aligned. Since then, Grok has trimmed that call to a $130,000-$180,000 range—still bullish, but a clear step down. 

Bitcoin tested the 200-day moving average at $82,455 four times in two weeks and failed every time, and Grok reads that as a bearish pattern that caps the upside. Grok still sees $76,000-$78,000 as the floor that has to hold. Retail buyers have stepped in there on every dip since March, so the AI thinks if BTC loses that floor, its bull forecast will lose its base.

Grok’s setup for Bitcoin hitting the $130K-$180K range needs three key things: Bitcoin defending $76K, ETF flows stabilizing above breakeven, and the CLARITY Act clearing the full Senate. If those align, Grok sees a short squeeze that could propel the Bitcoin price higher. 

Moreover, short positioning in Bitcoin futures is crowded right now. When buyers force a move higher, those shorts have to cover, and prices tend to overshoot. Strategy is still the biggest structural buyer in the market, with 843,738 BTC on its balance sheet. That steady buying gives Grok confidence the Bitcoin price floor holds even when markets get spooked. 

Gemini Slashed Its Bitcoin Target From $220K to $140K

Of all four models, Gemini cut its forecast the most after May 13. The specific trigger was Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Fed Chair. Gemini’s whole case depends on more money flowing through the global economy, which means Fed rate cuts have to be on the table for the bull case to work. 

But Warsh’s confirmation changed everything: CME FedWatch rate hike odds for 2026 jumped to 39%, and Polymarket priced 62% odds of zero cuts all year. Gemini cut its bull case from $220,000 to $140,000 in response. Its new range for BTC is $100,000 to $140,000, with $140K as the ceiling rather than the midpoint—a clear step down from the March forecast.

Gemini still sees Bitcoin hitting $100K as reachable, just not through Fed cuts like it expected in March. Now, the argument is that Bitcoin doesn’t need the Fed if money stays loose in the rest of the world. The European Central Bank is still cutting rates, the BOJ’s foreign bond move was a one-off response to fiscal pressure, and global liquidity at $130 trillion is at an all-time high. 

Worries about currency debasement keep Bitcoin’s digital gold trade alive whether the U.S. Fed cuts or not. Physical gold has rallied roughly 18% year-to-date, which shows the digital gold trade is still working. Gemini’s base case sees Bitcoin reaching $100K by Q4, but the forecast will likely run through a sideways summer first.

Claude Still Says Bitcoin Doesn’t Reach $100K This Year

Two months ago, Claude was the only AI model that didn’t see Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in 2026. The other four said yes, but Claude said no, projecting a $75,000 to $95,000 price range. 

After May 13, Claude is more confident in that call than ever and the model’s core argument hasn’t changed. Claude says Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025, and what comes after the halving is a long sideways grind. The April 2024 halving is now 25 months behind us, and every prior cycle peaked within 12 to 18 months of the halving. So, if history holds, the top for this cycle is already in, and 2026 is a bottom year.

Claude points to a specific parallel that CryptoQuant flagged this week—March 2022. Back then, Bitcoin tested the 200-day moving average, failed to break above it, and then fell from $47,000 to under $16,000 over the following months. The setup today looks similar, as Bitcoin’s failed retests of the 200-day, the accelerating ETF outflows, and Warsh’s unclear rate path all match the 2022 pattern. 

Claude doesn’t see Bitcoin crashing the way it did in 2022, but does see it grinding sideways in the $75K-$95K range through the year-end.

Polymarket Bets Bitcoin’s $100K Comeback Is a Coin Flip

AI models give data-based predictions, but Polymarket traders, on the other hand, bet real money, and here’s what they’re pricing in. Polymarket is pricing a 51% probability that Bitcoin closes above $100,000 by December 31, 2026. That’s a coin flip, and it’s meaningfully higher than Claude’s bearish view, but well below the confident calls from ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini. 

The same market gives 87% odds Bitcoin holds above $80,000 by year-end, which is a much higher floor than Claude’s $75K range. Polymarket also prices 73% odds that the CLARITY Act passes in 2026 and 62% odds of zero Fed rate cuts all year.

The coin flip is a useful reality check on the bullish AI consensus. If Polymarket’s Bitcoin at $100K odds climb above 60% over the next month, that means the June floor vote is going the right way. But if they drop below 40%,it signals the CLARITY Act bill is stalling and Claude’s forecast would become the working assumption.

What Has to Go Right for BTC to Hit $100K Again this Year?

Our take is that Bitcoin trading at $100K by year-end is still achievable.For that to happen, three specific things have to break right between now and December, and none of them is fully in Bitcoin’s control. 

The CLARITY Act clearing the full Senate before August is the biggest one. The June floor vote is the first real test, and Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC in June is the second. He needs to come across as willing to cut rates this year. If he signals reluctance despite Trump’s pressure, Bitcoin could compress for the rest of 2026. 

That said, Bitcoin ETF flows need to swing back positive. At least one week of over $1-$2B net inflows would put the ChatGPT and Grok’s bull forecasts on track.

The most likely scenario is a partial alignment, where the bill passes but Warsh signals tighter policy, or flows recover but slowly. That would get Bitcoin to $100K but barely, and ChatGPT’s $110K-$120K projection would become the realistic target. 

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