Most people who bought Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) in the last year are currently underwater and the mood around the market is cautious. The Bitcoin price is hovering above $80,000 today, but BTC is still down 36% from its $126K all-time high.
Despite the OG crypto’s price action, veteran trader Peter Brandt has made an ambitious Bitcoin price prediction. He forecasts that Bitcoin will trade between $300k and $500k by Sept/Oct 2029 if the four year cycle continues. Here’s his reasoning and our own review whether the prediction holds up.
Why Brandt Thinks Bitcoin Could Hit $300K–$500K by 2029
Every four years, Bitcoin cuts its mining reward in half through an event called the halving. The most recent one happened in April 2024, cutting the daily supply of new Bitcoin from 900 coins to 450. After each of the previous four halvings, Bitcoin followed the same pattern of a deep correction, a prolonged bottom, and an explosive rally to a new all-time high roughly 12 to 18 months later.
Brandt’s $300k to $500k range assumes this cycle plays out like the ones before it. If it does, the timing points to a peak in late 2029, roughly 18 months after the 2028 halving. The $200,000 gap between the low and high ends comes down to how institutions, governments, and retail buyers actually show up.
Moreover, Brandt has the track record to back this up. He called the end of the 2025 bull market while Bitcoin was still above $100,000—a bearish call that proved correct weeks after, as BTC peaked in October 2025 and started falling. He also called the 2018 bear market bottom accurately.
Brandt’s Reasoning Behind Bitcoin Reaching $300,000
Brandt’s forecast is conditional. His exact words: “should patterns continue.” The $300,000 to $500,000 target is what the cycle could deliver if nothing breaks it. Here are the conditions for his reasoning.
Bitcoin Has to Bottom First
Before Bitcoin reaches $300,000, it needs to form what Brandt calls an “investable low” in September or October 2026. This bottom may or may not fall below the February 2026 swing low of around $60,000-$63,000, which means Bitcoin could still drop another 20% from here before the real bull run begins.
Brandt is mapping a three-year roadmap that starts with more price drops, then a bottom, and then a long climb. If you are buying Bitcoin today expecting a straight line to $300,000, Brandt’s prediction won’t convince you.
The 2028 Halving Has to Deliver Its Full Effect
In April 2028, Bitcoin’s block reward will be cut again. This time, from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC per block. Miners will produce just 225 new Bitcoin per day, down from 450 today. Supply shrinking while demand stays steady is the whole engine of Brandt’s cycle. If ETF buyers keep absorbing supply at their current pace while new supply gets cut in half, price pressure builds naturally.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs already hold 1.32 million BTC, more than eight years of current mining output, all in one product category. BlackRock’s IBIT alone holds over 812,000 BTC valued at roughly $64 billion. When the 2028 halving cuts daily production in half again, those same buyers will be competing for even less new supply.
Global Liquidity Has to Expand
Every major Bitcoin bull run has coincided with a period of expanding global liquidity—a cheaper dollar, lower interest rates, and more capital flowing into risk assets. The 2020–2021 run happened during historic monetary stimulus. The 2024–2025 rally ran alongside the Fed’s first rate cuts since 2020.
Right now, the Fed is holding rates at 3.5%–3.75%, with the market pricing in only one possible cut, if any, for the rest of 2026. For Bitcoin to reach $300,000 by 2029, that picture has to change. Rate cuts pull money out of bonds and into risk assets like Bitcoin—every time.
Institutional Demand Has to Keep Growing
Corporate treasuries and Bitcoin ETFs were not a factor in any previous halving cycle, but they are in this one. Strategy holds 818,334 BTC, 3.8% of Bitcoin’s entire supply, in one corporate treasury. ETFs added $2.44 billion in April 2026 alone, the strongest institutional month of the year.
Brandt’s $300,000 prediction needs that institutional base to keep growing. More ETF products, more corporate treasuries, and eventually sovereign wealth funds would stack new demand on top of what’s already there.
Could Bitcoin Actually Reach This Price Range?
We think Brandt’s prediction is possible, but the range matters more than the price targets. Bitcoin hitting $300,000 would put its market cap above $6 trillion—larger than NVIDIA, which is currently the world’s most valuable public company at $5.2 trillion.
The biggest weakness in Brandt’s call is that he’s mapping the next cycle from data points before institutional ETFs and corporate treasuries existed. If those buyers smooth out the next correction, the September 2026 bottom might not happen at all. The signal to watch is whether BTC can hold above $80,000 through summer—if it does, then the cycle Brandt mapped out might not play out.