Bitcoin’s market liquidity halved since September 2025, with conditions worsening further in April 2026. The probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at
Market reaction
Cointelegraph reported a sharp decline in Bitcoin liquidity, a bearish signal for price action. As US-Iran tensions escalate, Bitcoin’s supposed hedge function looks compromised, with traders questioning whether it can hold up. The market for Bitcoin above $56,000 on April 10 reflects this, with odds poorly positioned for a bullish turn.
In the Bitcoin dip to $60,000 market, traders look more convinced of a downward move. Odds suggest growing pessimism as liquidity dries up, while rising oil prices and inflation pressures offer no relief on the macro side.
Why it matters
Combined 24-hour face value across these markets is $0, but the liquidity problem itself is the story. A thin order book means even small trades can cause outsized price swings, making volatility worse for anyone with open positions. The 50% liquidity drop since September is not a gradual fade; the April deterioration has been abrupt.
What to watch
The deteriorating liquidity and geopolitical tension point toward a bearish April for Bitcoin. At current odds, betting on a dip to $60,000 carries a speculative edge. Buying YES at
Watch Jerome Powell and Abigail Johnson for moves that could shift sentiment. Any escalation or de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict would likely move these markets fast given how thin the order books are.
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