TLDR
- Mike McGlone said Bitcoin may have peaked after the U.S. spot ETF launch.
- He said Bitcoin could fall from $72,000 toward $10,000.
- McGlone tied the rally to ETF inflows, politics, and late-cycle market conditions.
- He said Bitcoin ETFs lagged the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis.
- He also said gold outperformed Bitcoin since spot funds launched in early 2024.
Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone said Bitcoin may have already topped after the U.S. spot ETF launch. He warned that Bitcoin could fall toward $10,000 from $72,000. He tied the risk to fading risk appetite, ETF flows, and stretched market valuations.
McGlone Links Bitcoin Peak to Late-Cycle Market Signals
McGlone said Bitcoin reached $126,200 in 2025 as U.S. market value versus GDP hit a 1928-era extreme. He said that overlap matched a late-cycle pattern across risk assets.
He argued that spot ETFs helped lift Bitcoin into six figures during 2024 and 2025. He wrote that the move looked like a “pump then dump” phase.
He also linked the rally to growing political support for crypto, including backing from Donald Trump. In his view, politics and ETF demand helped extend the run.
McGlone said Bitcoin now behaves like a high-beta asset that can drop faster than broader markets. He said that setup often appears near cycle peaks.
He added that Bitcoin ETFs have trailed the S&P 500 on a risk-adjusted basis. He said Bitcoin remains about four times more volatile than the equity benchmark.
That gap, he argued, may limit institutional demand even after the ETF launch. He framed volatility as a barrier for large portfolio managers.
Bitcoin ETF Performance Trails Gold in McGlone’s Comparison
McGlone also compared Bitcoin with gold since U.S. spot funds began trading in early 2024. He said the performance gap points to a shift in capital.
He said BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust helped drive about 50% gains since early 2024. He contrasted that rise with gold’s roughly 135% advance.
He also said the S&P 500 posted a similar return during that period. He used that comparison to question Bitcoin’s edge.
In a series of posts, McGlone said money may move toward safer assets. He identified gold as the main beneficiary in that trade.
He said the Bitcoin ETF boom may mark a late-cycle signal, not a lasting catalyst. He tied that view to tightening financial conditions.
Bitcoin traded at $72,000 in the account he referenced, far above his $10,000 target. That forecast implies a drop of more than 86%.
McGlone said the ETF surge past $100,000 may have marked Bitcoin’s peak for this cycle. He based that call on price action and macro signals.
His latest posts kept the $10,000 view in place and repeated his gold comparison. He also said Bitcoin’s ETF-driven rise aligned with “peak beta” conditions in risk assets. Those comments formed the core of his latest public warning.
