TLDR
- Bitcoin price rose 3% in 24 hours and moved back above $68,000.
- The 365-day average profitability remains high at 87.5%, showing no full market reset.
- Analysts said past bear markets saw the long-term average drop near 63.8% before recovery.
- Current data shows 66.4% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit despite recent declines.
- Bitcoin continues to trade above the $54,000 Realized Price level.
Bitcoin (BTC) price opened in April above $68,000 after a 3% daily gain, yet the broader trend remains downward. On-chain data shows long-term profitability remains elevated despite recent declines. Analysts state the market has not completed the deep reset seen in prior bear cycles.
Bitcoin Price Holds Above $68,000 as Long-Term Profitability Stays Elevated
Bitcoin price climbed 3% in 24 hours and traded above $68,000 at press time. However, price action still reflects a prevailing downtrend across higher time frames. Short-term rebounds continue, yet broader market pressure persists.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said profitability metrics have not reached prior bear market lows. He stated that 66.4% of the Bitcoin supply remains in profit as of April 1, 2026. Meanwhile, the 30-day moving average stands at 69.1%, which reflects reduced short-term gains.
Adler highlighted the 365-day moving average, which remains elevated at 87.5%. He said previous cycles saw this metric fall sharply before full recovery phases began. In late 2017, the indicator reached 96% before dropping to 63.8% by May 2019.
He explained that this earlier decline confirmed a complete market reset. In contrast, the current 365-day average has not approached those historical lows. Therefore, long-term holders still retain strong profitability levels despite ongoing drawdowns.
Historical Reset Levels and Realized Price at $54,000 Remain Key Reference Points
Adler compared the current downturn with corrections in September 2023 and September 2024. He said those pullbacks weakened short-term profitability but left long-term averages intact. The 2026 decline pushed the metric down to 55.7%, while the 30-day average fell to 66.7%.
Despite deeper losses this year, the 365-day average remains near 87.5%. Adler stated, “As long as the 365DMA stays elevated, the market resembles an extended correction.” He added that a full capitulation phase would require a sharper long-term profitability drop.
Separately, analyst Ardi reviewed Bitcoin’s seasonal performance trends since 2014. He reported that April ranks as the third-strongest month historically, with a 9.1% average return. However, he said market context matters because 2026 reflects bear market conditions.
Ardi cited April 2014, when Bitcoin declined 2%, and April 2022, when it fell 18.7%. He also referenced April 2018, which delivered a 35.7% rebound within a broader downturn. According to him, strong monthly averages do not override prevailing trends.
CryptoQuant analyst Tugce focused on Bitcoin’s Realized Price, currently near $54,000. She said Bitcoin historically falls below this level before forming major cycle bottoms. Tugce stated, “The $54,000 area represents a key historical threshold during bear phases.”
She added that price could trade below the Realized Price for an extended period. Historical data shows previous bear markets reached that stage before recovery began. Bitcoin continues to trade well above $54,000 as of the latest market update.
