Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, and Solana Are All Down Over 40% From Their Peaks — Is This the Bottom?

Between mid-2025 and October, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was above $126,000, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) was pushing toward $5,000, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) had hit $3.65, and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) was trading near $295. If you bought anywhere near those levels, and haven’t taken profit, most of those gains have been erased. The entire crypto market has been falling since late 2025, and the four cryptos have been falling consistently every single month as underwater holders keep selling into every rally to break even or take profit.

The selling has been relentless, but on-chain bottom signals are starting to flash. The bottom signals are the same ones that have preceded every major recovery since 2015. The current market correction is only five months old, though, and Bitcoin has historically needed 12 to 15 months from peak to bottom—and once BTC stabilizes the rest of the crypto market follows. Here’s what the current data says about whether this is the bottom or if there are more drops ahead.

How Deep Is the Crypto Market Correction?

Six months ago, the four largest non-stablecoin crypto assets were all trading near cycle highs. Bitcoin hit $126,000, Ethereum reached $4,950, and XRP and Solana were both at levels most holders never expected to see. As of March 30, every one of them has lost between 47% and 72% from those peaks.

Bitcoin is sitting at its lowest price since the February crash, XRP is nearing the $1.28 support, and Ethereum has broken below $2,000 for the first time since mid-2024. Solana has been hit the hardest—down 72% with on-chain activity declining alongside the price, as network transactions fell 3.2% and active addresses dropped 11% over the past month. 

The crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 27, the average crypto RSI is at 40.66, and the total market cap sits at $2.31 trillion. If you hold any of these four assets, you’re looking at one of the deepest drawdowns since the 2022 bear market.

What’s Driving the Crash Across Crypto?

None of the four major assets has held a rally for more than a few days in 2026, as every little push higher has been sold into so quickly. Then, macroeconomic conditions have hit crypto the most compared to other markets.

The Iran-U.S. war pushed oil above $100 starting on February 28, which drove inflation expectations higher and led the Fed to revise its 2026 forecast from 2.4% to 2.7%. Rate cut expectations got pushed to December at the earliest, and a 15% global tariff overhang that’s been weighing on risk assets all year meant there was nothing to absorb the selling when it came.

Institutional money started pulling out before the worst of it even hit. On March 26, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana spot ETFs all posted net outflows on the same day for the first time this year—Bitcoin lost $171 million and Ethereum recorded its seventh straight outflow session.

The next day, the largest quarterly options expiry of 2026 settled $14.16 billion on Deribit and triggered $451 million in liquidations across the crypto market. The gold-to-crypto rotation that had been supporting prices earlier in March reversed at the same time, with capital flowing back into gold while crypto sold off across the board.

What Are the Bottom Signals Saying?

The clearest sign that a crypto selloff is running out of steam is when there’s almost no one left selling at a profit. Realized profit across the Bitcoin network has collapsed 96% from its July 2025 peak, which means the holders who wanted to cash out have mostly already done so. When profitable sellers are gone, the remaining selling comes from holders taking losses—and historically, that’s the phase where corrections start running out of momentum.

Most of that capital didn’t leave crypto as it moved into stablecoins. Stablecoin supply has climbed to a record $316 billion, meaning investors sold their Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana positions but kept the money inside the ecosystem in dollar-pegged assets. Bitcoin exchange reserves have dropped to a seven-year low of 2.21 million BTC at the same time, so the available supply on exchanges keeps shrinking while hundreds of billions in stablecoins sit on the sidelines ready to flow back in.

The combination of shrinking exchange supply, seller exhaustion, and record sidelined capital has only shown up three times before—late 2015, late 2018, and mid-2022—and each of those preceded rallies of 300% or more within 18 months. But this correction is only five months old, and Bitcoin has historically needed 12 to 15 months from peak to bottom. 

Analyst consensus from CryptoQuant and Glassnode independently targets Q4 2026 as the most likely bottom window, and the MVRV Z-Score—which dropped below zero at every previous cycle low—is still at 1.2. The on-chain data shows that the profitable selling has mostly run its course, but the cycle reflects there could still be months of grinding before the real bottom forms.

What Would Confirm a Bottom?

Bottom signals are showing up in the on-chain data, but in every previous cycle, those signals alone weren’t enough to start a recovery. In 2022, the market didn’t turn until the Fed finally pivoted on rates. Right now, the most likely catalyst is a de-escalation in the Iran-U.S. conflict. Every time ceasefire reports have surfaced this year, Bitcoin has bounced sharply within days. Oil dropping back below $90 would also give the Fed room to shift its tone on rates, which could spark a reversal.

Until those conditions change, the levels to watch are Bitcoin holding $66,000 and breaking back above $75,000, Ethereum reclaiming $2,200, XRP defending the $1.28 Fibonacci floor, and Solana staying above $80—with SOL at the most risk since its on-chain activity is declining alongside the price. 

This probably isn’t the final bottom, but the on-chain setup—record stablecoin capital, shrinking exchange supply, and sellers running out of profit—means the four cryptos could all recover once the macro conditions improve.