Key Takeaways
- A crypto-friendly Fed Chair nominee, and a step forward for the Clarity Act, among other bits of good news, hasn’t inspired a turnaround in sentiment around bitcoin.
- The price of bitcoin is down about 20% in the past year.
What can shake bitcoin out of its rut?
That’s the question on crypto traders’ minds these days. The price of the world’s largest cryptocurrency has fallen year-to-date, deflating early January hopes of a turnaround. Bitcoin broke below the $85,000 level this week and appears headed toward lows not seen since April; even signs of good news aren’t helping, with the coin recently trading at around $83,000.
Neither billions of dollars of purchases by a Bitcoin whale, nor recent developments with a key crypto industry bill, have restored bullish energy. Gold is the star for investors seeking hedges these days. President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh, a bitcoin supporter, as the next Fed chair, does not appear to be moving the needle much either.
Some industry experts appear to be looking to the price investors will view as cheap enough to get back in—and many bitcoin backers are still bullish on the outlook for this year and beyond.
Bitcoin appears to have lost its draw—both as a hedge, and as a momentum play. That has some market watchers wondering what price investors are waiting for before getting back in.
But by the looks of recent bitcoin ETF flows, investors don’t seem to think we’re there yet. In the last three days, bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of around $985 million, according to Farside Investors. (Strategy (MSTR), the big bitcoin buyer, continues to load up: This month it’s added 40,147 bitcoins for about $3.7 billion.)
The Senate Agriculture Committee’s version of the Clarity Act, a key crypto bill that aims to create a regulatory framework for the industry, passed through a party line vote just yesterday. That’s good news, but the Senate Banking Committee’s draft has stalled, and the partisan outcome of the Ag Committee vote suggests there’s still a lot of work to do to get the legislation past the finish line.
Warsh has previously called bitcoin as an “important asset.” Strategy’s Michael Saylor on social media Friday said he’ll soon be “the first pro-Bitcoin Chairman of the Federal Reserve.” Warsh’s appointment, however, still needs Senate confirmation, and his nomination doesn’t appear to be moving bitcoin prices meaningfully.
If neither crypto legislation nor a pro-bitcoin Fed Chair can spur a rebound in bitcoin, it may be down to prices. With “no clear catalysts on the immediate horizon,” a near-term reset would not appear likely, Sean Farrell, Fundstrat’s head of digital asset strategy, said in a note this morning.
“It is increasingly plausible that we approach a ‘value zone’ in the coming days/weeks,” Farrell said, pointing to the mid-$70,000s as a level that would offer support. That would suggest a fall of another 10% or so.