Ark says that ETFs and corporate treasuries now control about 12% of all the Bitcoin out there, which is a big jump from about 4% in 2023. This rate of absorption has exceeded the firm’s original forecast and is already altering the asset’s volatility profile.
Ark says the market has now passed the psychological threshold of whether Bitcoin deserves allocation. So, fund managers, family offices, and high-net-worth individuals are trying to figure out how much to allocate and which access vehicle to use.
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Bear case: $300,000 BTC by 2030
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Base case: $710,000 BTC by 2030
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Bull case: $1,500,000 BTC by 2030
In Ark’s base case, Bitcoin’s appeal as “digital gold” is up, especially as US monetary policy becomes more dovish and regulation becomes clear. The big picture and the law are key to the $710,000 scenario.
But if things go well, Ark says if a lot of institutions start using it, BTC could go way up, maybe even over $1 million. So, over the next three years, we can expect to see sovereign funds, global banks, and insurance giants putting some of their conservative portfolios into Bitcoin.
Puell says the only thing keeping Bitcoin’s value up is the people who’ve had it since the 2010s. These groups-like whales, miners, and those who adopt new technology early-have started to make a result at new record highs, which has made it so that they can naturally resist each price expansion.
At $95,681, Bitcoin has already absorbed more institutional capital than most analysts thought possible in a post-halving year. The next question is whether long-term infrastructure, from custody to stablecoin rails, will be able to keep up with demand.