MARKET MOVEMENTS:
–Brent crude oil is up 0.5% to $63.04 a barrel.
–European benchmark gas is down 1.3% to 30.54 euros a megawatt-hour.
–Gold futures are up 0.6% at $4,236.70 a troy ounce.
–LME three-month copper futures are up 0.5% at $10,948.50 a metric ton.
TOP STORY:
Oil Market Faces Growing Surplus as Inventories Climb, IEA Says
The oil market is becoming increasingly unbalanced with global inventories continuing to climb and an even larger surplus expected this year, the International Energy Agency said in its closely watched monthly report.
The Paris-based organization, which represents major oil-consuming nations, raised its forecast for global demand, saying it is now expected to grow by 788,000 barrels a day this year and 770,000 barrels a day the next.
However, estimates for oil-supply growth were also raised to 3.1 million barrels a day and 2.5 million for the periods, respectively, from earlier projections of 3 million and 2.4 million barrels a day.
OTHER STORIES:
Adnoc Gas Earnings Jump Despite Lower Prices, Initiates Third-Quarter Dividend
Adnoc Gas said that third-quarter earnings jumped despite weaker prices, and declared a nearly $900 million inaugural third-quarter dividend.
The Abu Dhabi-owned gas company said Thursday that net profit for the quarter rose 8% on the same period a year prior to $1.34 billion. This compares with the $1.32 billion euros that analysts had expected, according to a Visible Alpha compiled consensus.
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Rio Tinto to Shelve $2.4 Billion Serbian Lithium Project
Rio Tinto will mothball a $2.4 billion lithium project it has spent years seeking to develop in Serbia, as the mining giant's new chief executive aims to simplify the business and focus on quicker growth options.
Rio Tinto, the world's second biggest miner by market value, has long touted the Jadar project in western Serbia, discovered by its own geologists in 2004, as an important future source of the battery metal for the European market. It was this year designated a strategic project by the European Union.
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CATL Shares Surge After Deal With Energy Storage-System Manufacturer
Shares of Chinese battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology rose sharply in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, after CATL's deal with an energy storage-system manufacturer boosted sentiment about the battery sector.
The company's Hong Kong-listed shares closed 3.2% higher at 567.50 Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to $73.02, on Thursday. Its Shenzhen-listed shares closed 7.6% higher at a record 415.60 yuan, or $58.43.
MARKET TALKS:
Oil Rangebound as Traders Weigh Oversupply Prospects, Long-Term Outlook -- Market Talk
1030 GMT - Oil prices are rangebound as traders weigh concerns over excess supply against shrinking OPEC+ spare capacity and risks from Russian sanctions. Brent crude and WTI both rise 0.3% to $62.87 and $58.65 a barrel, respectively, after opening the session lower. "The near-term outlook continues to signal softness amid plentiful supply and weak seasonal demand, yet the longer-term picture has turned more constructive after a significant shift from the IEA," Saxo Bank analysts say. The energy watchdog reinstated a scenario in its World Energy Outlook annual report in which global oil consumption keeps growing until 2050. However, the IEA also forecasts an even larger surplus this year, while OPEC revised third-quarter estimates saying that supply exceeded demand--a move that was widely read as confirmation that the long-anticipated oversupply has arrived, Saxo analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Aluminum Above $2,900 on China Supply Cap, Softening Trade Tensions -- Market Talk
1004 GMT - Aluminum prices climbed above $2,900 a metric ton in mid-morning trade, supported by tightening supply expectations in China and easing trade tensions between Beijing and Washington. "Aluminium has gained more than 13% this year," ING analysts say. "It is the third-strongest performer on the LME after copper and tin this year." China's output is nearing its 45 million-ton capacity cap, keeping Chinese exports limited and tightening supply elsewhere. Few new smelter restarts have been announced in Europe or the U.S. as producers struggle to secure affordable long-term power contracts, ING says. Meanwhile, the copper-to-aluminum price ratio is approaching historic highs, suggesting stronger incentives for manufacturers to substitute aluminum for copper. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Gold Above $4,200 After U.S. Government Reopens -- Market Talk
0940 GMT - Gold prices climb above the $4,200 mark after President Trump signed a spending bill that ends the longest shutdown in U.S. history, which put on hold key economic data for the Fed. Futures in New York rise 0.6% to $4,238 a troy ounce--the highest in more than three weeks--while spot gold gains 1.7% to $4,195.21 an ounce. "Markets bet that once data flows restart, a softer U.S. economic picture could justify additional rate cuts, which support the non-yielding metal," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. "Still, divisions within the Fed persist, with some policymakers favouring a pause to curb inflation." Gold futures are up more than 60% this year, boosted by strong central-bank demand and investors seeking a hedge against rising fiscal risks across major economies. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Oil Pressured by Growing Surplus Expectations -- Market Talk
0925 GMT - Oil prices edge lower on signs of weaker demand in the U.S. and growing prospects of a global supply surplus. Brent crude and WTI are both down 0.4% to $62.46 and $58.26 a barrel, respectively. The price difference between the near-term and future delivery contracts for WTI has shifted into contango--when the price for future delivery is higher than the current price--for the first time since February in a fresh sign of rising oversupply, ING says. U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 1.3 million barrels a day last week, according to reports ahead of official Energy Information Administration data. Meanwhile, OPEC lifted its output forecast for producers outside the alliance and flipped market estimates for the third quarter of this year from a deficit to a surplus. The IEA said the oil market is becoming increasingly unbalanced and that it now sees a larger surplus this year. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Comex Gold Futures' Bullish Momentum Growing Stronger, Chart Shows -- Market Talk
0657 GMT - Comex gold futures' bullish momentum is growing stronger, RHB Retail Research's Joseph Chai says in a research report. Wednesday's positive price movements on the daily chart have solidified the futures' position above the 20-day simple moving average, the analyst notes. The futures' breakout above resistance at $4,200/oz overnight has also weakened the bearish engulfing pattern that formed on Oct. 21, Chai says. This price action reaffirms that gold bulls are still in the "driver's seat," the analyst says. The consolidation phase is perceived to have finished, with the commodity now setting its sights toward testing $4,400/oz, the analyst adds. Spot gold is 0.3% higher at $4,207.65/oz. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
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Palm Oil Falls, Tracking Weaker Soybean Oil -- Market Talk
0258 GMT - Palm oil prices fall in early Asian trading, tracking overnight weakness in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade. Production in November is likely to remain high on month, driven by peak output from East Malaysia, UOB Kay Hian analyst Lester Siew says in a note. Greater palm oil availability and competitive prices could keep export levels elevated, while November end-stocks are expected to stay flat or rise slightly, he adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for January delivery is 18 ringgit lower at 4,106 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
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Iron Ore Rises; Short-Term Volatility May Continue -- Market Talk
0244 GMT - Iron ore rises in early Asian trade, with the most-traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange 0.3% higher at 772.50 yuan a ton. Steelmaking inputs iron ore and coking coal have formed a seesaw effect, with a sharp drop in coking coal prices offering room for iron ore to rise, Nanhua Futures writes in a note. Lower iron ore shipments, improved profitability at steel mills and easing cost pressure from coking coal signal potential short-term price recovery and a slower rate of decline, it adds. However, overall supply remains ample as accumulation of port inventories continue, which may drive price volatility in the short term, Nanhua Futures says.(jason.chau@wsj.com)
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Crude Palm Oil Output May Soften as Monsoon Season Kicks In -- Market Talk
0118 GMT - Crude palm oil output is expected to soften from November as the monsoon season sets in, keeping prices above 4,000 ringgit/ton until fresh fruit bunches yields recover in 2Q next year, AmInvestment Bank analyst Gan Huey Ling says in a note. She maintains her 2025 average CPO price assumption at 4,250 ringgit/ton, noting that prices averaged 4,357 ringgit/ton in the first 10 months. AmInvestment Bank keeps a neutral rating on Malaysia's plantation sector, pegging SD Guthrie, Johor Plantations, Kim Loong Resources and Genting Plantations at buy.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
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Oil Extends Declines Amid Slew of Headwinds -- Market Talk
0116 GMT - Oil extends overnight price declines in the early Asian session amid a slew of headwinds. Spot crude oil prices fell below longer-dated futures contracts, marking first time this so-called bearish structure has happened since February, ANZ Research analysts say in a note. This is fresh sign of widely-expected supply glut, they say. Also, sentiment hasn't been helped by bearish forecasts from major groups such as OPEC and EIA, the analysts add. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.6% lower at $58.15/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.5% lower at $62.37/bbl. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
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Copper Slips; Price Could See Resistance at $11,000 Level -- Market Talk
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
November 13, 2025 06:00 ET (11:00 GMT)
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