VanEck CEO Jan Van Eck has issued a bullish projection, stating that Bitcoin’s growing correlation with global M2 liquidity could propel it to $180K before the end of the bull run.
In the latest VanEck Mid-October 2025 Bitcoin ChainCheck report, the asset manager revealed that Bitcoin’s price has long moved with the ebb and flow of global money supply.
Since 2014, Bitcoin has exhibited roughly a 0.5 correlation (r² = 0.25) with total global M2 growth, meaning changes in fiat currency liquidity have explained a meaningful portion of its long-term returns.
“While this relationship tends to weaken during short-lived shocks, such as COVID in 2020, the 2024 election, or the ‘Tariff Tantrum’ of 2025, broader trends in monetary expansion continue to dominate Bitcoin’s cycles,” VanEck said.
VanEck Investment Analyst Nathan Frankovitz observed that since 2013, global liquidity across the top five currencies has roughly doubled from $50 trillion to nearly $100 trillion, during which Bitcoin’s price has increased over 700x.
Source: VanEck
Among major currencies, the euro M2 money supply remains the strongest explanatory variable (r = 0.69, t = 10), which solidifies Bitcoin’s growing role as a neutral reserve asset amid synchronized currency debasement.
With Bitcoin comprising approximately 2% of the global money supply, VanEck believes owning less than 2% of Bitcoin or other digital assets implicitly expresses a short position in the asset class.
For these reasons, VanEck has reaffirmed its $180,000 year-end Bitcoin price target despite recent market volatility. VanEck believes the futures market plays a major role in whether Bitcoin can reach the ambitious $180K target.
Since October 2020, nearly 73% of Bitcoin’s price variance has been explained by changes in futures open interest (t = 71).
As of early October 2025, futures leverage sat near its 95th percentile, with cash collateral backing Bitcoin futures at record highs (~$145B).
Open interest peaked at $52B on October 6th before falling to $39B on October 10th following an 8-hour, 20% BTC drawdown.
Source: VanEck
Additionally, leverage has never sustained levels above 30% for more than 75 days, suggesting a limit on sustained risk appetite.
However, the composition of leverage has matured, with greater participation from institutions, miners, and ETF market makers shifting activity toward regulated venues like CME.
Farzam Ehsani, Co-founder and CEO of VALR, told Cryptonews that gold’s recent $2.5 trillion market cap correction represents a natural cooling phase after an overheated rally, rather than a shift in investor confidence.