Bitcoin investors, it’s time to buckle up.
Jon Glover, Elliott Wave analyst and Ledn’s Chief Investment Officer, known for his precise market forecasts, is going against the bullish consensus with a stark warning: The bitcoin bull market that began in early 2023 appears to be over following a recent fall from $126,000 to $104,000.
Glover now foresees a sustained bear market that could push prices down to $70,000 or lower, a potential drop of more than 35% from the going market rate of around $108,000.
“I firmly believe we have completed the five-wave upward move and are now entering a bear market that may last until at least late 2026,” Glover said. “I expect bitcoin to trade between $70K and $80K, and possibly even lower.”
Glover explained that while the possibility of bitcoin retesting its record highs around $124,000 or climbing slightly higher cannot be ruled out, the broader trend has now flipped bearish, meaning prices are likely to be lower a few months from now.
The Elliott Wave theory
Introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, Elliott Wave Theory is based on the idea that collective investor psychology moves in predictable cycles. These cycles form a five-wave structure in the direction of the main trend, with three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Bitcoin’s bullish five-wave pattern started in late 2022, when prices were below $20,000, culminating with the fifth wave peaking at a record above $126,000 earlier this month.
Initially, wave 5 was predicted to bring prices to between $140,000 and $150,000 by year-end. Glover made this call in early August against a backdrop of growing bearish concerns after a sharp dip from $120,000 to $112,000.
While prices surged as forecasted, momentum stalled beyond $125,000 this month, prompting Glover to warn that a repeated failure to hold above that level would weaken the bull case. Subsequently, bitcoin tumbled to $105,000 last week, confirming an early end to the bull run.
“Now that we have broken down below $108k, I am ready to make the call as to whether we are on the orange path in the chart below and therefore looking for a move up to $145k, or are on the yellow path, which would mean that we have seen the highs in this market,” Glover said. “Here’s my call: THE BULL RUN IN BITCOIN IS OVER!”
The bearish outlook is consistent with bitcoin’s historical trend of peaking and then entering a bear market roughly 18 months after each halving event. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024.
Supporting Glover’s bearish sentiment, data from Amberdata shows BTC’s Deribit-listed put options, providing downside protection, are trading at a premium compared to calls through the September 2026 expiry. This suggests that some traders are preparing for downside risks extending well into next year.