Furthermore, BTC has faced intense selling pressure since the latest escalation in the US-China trade war. President Trump’s threat of an additional 100% tariff on Chinese shipments has raised fears of a global recession, weighing on sentiment.
BTC climbed to an October 6 record high of $125,761 before sliding to $103,587 on Friday, October 17.
US BTC-Spot ETF Flows Signal Market Caution
The US BTC-spot ETF market reported net outflows of $1.23 billion in the reporting week ending Friday, October 17. Outflows pushed BTC below $105,000 before Saturday’s recovery. Despite spot ETF outflows, October’s inflows have delivered price support, preventing a BTC drop below $100,000.
BTC-spot ETF issuers have reported October net inflows of $3.78 billion, following inflows of $3.51 billion in September. Notably, BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is the only ETF with monthly inflows. According to Farside Investors, key flows for October include:
- IBIT has seen net inflows of $4.0 billion, maintaining its market dominance.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net inflows of $0.27 billion.
- Meanwhile, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) have registered net outflows of $0.58 billion.
Fed Rate Cut Bets Keep Price Recovery Hopes Alive
While spot ETF outflows have weighed on demand, markets are betting on back-to-back Fed rate cuts in October and December. Expectations of multiple cuts have provided price support above the $100,000 psychological level.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of 25-basis point rate cuts in October and December stand at 99% and 94%, respectively. Notably, there is also an increasing chance of a 50-basis-point cut in December, 6.0%, up from 0% on October 10.