TLDR
- July US CPI held steady at 2.7% year-over-year, boosting Fed rate cut probability to 93.9% for September
- Bitcoin briefly touched $122,190 before pulling back to $118,500 range
- Technical analysis shows a bullish flag pattern breakout with potential target of $137,000
- Key support zone established between $117,650-$115,650
- Record accumulation by whales and long-term holders may support further price increases
Bitcoin has maintained its position above the crucial $115,000 level as recent economic data strengthens the case for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The July US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has reinforced a mildly bullish outlook for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
The latest CPI data showed inflation holding steady at 2.7% year-over-year, coming in below the forecasted 2.8%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 3.1% annually, aligning with market expectations.
On a monthly basis, overall CPI increased by 0.2%, easing from the 0.3% rise seen in June. Meanwhile, core CPI rose 0.3%, slightly above the previous month’s 0.2% gain.
This economic data has directly impacted Bitcoin’s price action. Following the CPI release, market expectations for a September Fed rate cut jumped to 93.9%, according to CME FedWatch data.
A lower interest rate environment typically reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. This could potentially draw fresh capital into the cryptocurrency market as investors seek alternative stores of value.
Bitcoin responded positively to these developments, surging to Monday highs of $122,190. However, these gains proved short-lived as the price quickly retreated about 3% to the $118,500 range.
After the US CPI release, BTC rebounded to $119,500, though it has yet to secure a daily close above the psychologically important $120,000 mark. Achieving this milestone would be historically significant and could potentially trigger the next phase of Bitcoin’s rally.
Technical Outlook Points Higher
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin recently broke out of a bullish flag pattern on the daily chart. The current price action could represent a retest before continuation toward a primary target of $130,000.
Technical analyst Titan of Crypto projects an even more bullish scenario, targeting $137,000 based on a descending trendline breakout observed over the weekend.
However, if Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $120,000 level, it could face short-term downside pressure. Immediate support lies in the $117,650–$115,650 zone, which coincides with a CME gap formed over the weekend.
While Bitcoin appears to be holding higher ground, it’s not entirely immune to deeper corrections. A more substantial pullback could test levels as low as $95,000, though current market dynamics suggest this is less likely in the immediate term.
Whale Accumulation Reaches Record Levels
Behind the scenes, Bitcoin’s network activity shows strengthening fundamentals. Active addresses increased by 8% to 793,000 last week, while transaction fees rose 10% – both indicators of growing network demand.
Perhaps most telling is the record level of Bitcoin accumulation driven by whales and long-term holders. At press time, approximately 94% of Bitcoin’s supply was in profit, creating a situation where market sentiment could shift if profit-taking accelerates.
Nakamoto CEO David Bailey recently announced plans to purchase $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, signaling strong institutional confidence in the asset’s future.
JUST IN: Nakamoto CEO David Bailey says he will smash buy $1 BILLION Bitcoin tomorrow.
Huge Bitcoin buys incoming 🚀 pic.twitter.com/QuiQibdejq
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) August 11, 2025
Similarly, Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy marked the fifth anniversary of its Bitcoin strategy by adding $18 million worth of BTC to its holdings, bringing its total to 628,946 BTC.
These accumulation patterns from major players suggest strong conviction even as prices hover near peak profit levels. If this buying momentum continues, it could create supply scarcity just as demand accelerates.
At press time, BTC traded at $118,724, maintaining gains from its recent rebound. The price remained above both the 9-day and 21-day Simple Moving Averages, indicating steady short-term support.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered near 58, suggesting momentum remains in neutral territory with room for additional upside.
