Cryptocurrency prices rose for the fourth consecutive day as concerns about a US recession faded after encouraging jobless claims data.
It was a sea of green as Bitcoin (BTC) and most altcoins, which have risen by over 30% from their lowest point this week.
US inflation report ahead
One of the main catalysts driving the recent crypto and stock rally was the US jobless claims report on Aug. 8. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of claims dropped to 233,000 in the prior week. A week before that, the claims rose to 250,000, the highest level in months.
These numbers came a week after the non-farm payrolls report showed that the jobless rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021.
Therefore, Aug. 15 will be important for the crypto industry as the US will publish the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Economists polled by Reuters expect the data to show that the headline CPI dropped from 3.0% to 2.9% in July. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to drop from 3.3% to 3.2%.
Bitcoin and altcoins could benefit from Fed cuts
A sign that inflation is falling will benefit Bitcoin and altcoins because of its impact on the Federal Reserve.
In its monetary policy meeting in July, the Fed hinted that it would consider cutting rates in its September meeting. Analysts are now divided on whether the first cut will be 0.25% or a jumbo 0.50%.
Some, like those from ING Bank and Citi, expect a 0.50% cut while others from Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale see a 0.25% reduction. A Polymarket poll also predicts several rate cuts this year.
Cryptocurrency prices tend to do well when the Federal Reserve is cutting rates. The most recent example is in March 2020 when the Fed slashed the official cash rate to zero due to the pandemic. In the aftermath, Bitcoin rose to a record high of $69,000 in 2021.
Before that, Bitcoin rose by 90% in 2019 as the Fed cut rates in July, September, and October. Conversely, Bitcoin dropped by 65.2% in 2022 as the Fed hiked rates, with other altcoins faring even worse.
One reason why cryptocurrencies might do well when the Fed starts cutting rates is the significant amount of money in the bond market. Money market funds currently hold over $6.2 trillion, where investors are earning over 5% annually.
When rates start falling, these funds will likely shift to riskier assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies.