Stock Market Today (LIVE): Palantir Rises as Markets Turn Risk-On; Oil Drop Masks Supply Crunch?

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PLTR Gains as UK Deal Raises Stakes

4:32 pm — PLTR +6.78% today

Shares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR +6.77%) rose about 7% on Monday as markets turned risk-on and details emerged around a new UK regulatory deal. The company was selected by the Financial Conduct Authority for a three-month pilot to analyze its internal data lake using Palantir’s Foundry platform. If expanded, the contract could position Palantir deeper inside oversight of about 42,000 firms—though strict limits require it to act only as a data processor and delete data after the trial.

• A Beachhead Into Regulation: A successful pilot could open a larger, recurring revenue stream tied to financial surveillance infrastructure—not just government contracts.
• Power Meets Pushback: Handling sensitive financial data raises privacy and security concerns, with critics warning AI models could be vulnerable to manipulation.

Chevron CEO Warns Oil Risk Isn’t Yet Priced In

4:15 pm — CVX +1.69%

Chevron (CVX +1.67%) CEO Mike Wirth warned oil markets may be underpricing disruption from the Strait of Hormuz closure, even as crude falls on deal hopes. “There are very real, physical manifestations…not fully priced into the futures curves,” he said. With tanker traffic down and exports constrained, “we got a lot of oil and gas now that is not flowing into the market.” Wirth added recovery is uncertain: “It’s going to take some time to come out of this.”

• Perception vs. Pipes: Futures suggest easing supply, but Wirth points to a physical shortfall that could force a repricing.
• Not a Quick Reset: Even if flows resume, restarting production and rebuilding inventories may lag longer than markets expect.

Closing Bell

4:04 pm

U.S. stocks surged as oil prices dropped sharply after President Trump postponed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and signaled ongoing talks. Brent crude fell about 11%, easing fears of supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. The Dow rose about 700 points, with broad gains across sectors as travel, banks, and industrials rallied. Lower oil also lifted airlines like United Airlines (UAL +4.54%) and Delta Air Lines (DAL +2.66%), while easing inflation concerns pushed Treasury yields lower.

• From Panic to Relief: Markets flipped from near-correction levels to broad gains as traders priced in a lower risk of prolonged energy disruption.
• Oil Still the Lever: The rally hinges on crude—any reversal in diplomacy could quickly reignite volatility across equities, rates, and risk assets.

ASML Rides the Next Wave of AI Spend

3:23 pm — ASML +4.49%

ASML Holding (ASML +4.08%) rose after a bullish AI outlook from Bernstein suggested demand for chips—and the tools to make them—remains strong despite recent volatility. The note pointed to potential profit surges at Nvidia (NVDA +1.80%) and Broadcom (AVGO +4.08%), reinforcing expectations that foundries like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +2.88%) will invest heavily in capacity, driving orders for ASML’s lithography machines. The move underscores how AI optimism continues to ripple up the semiconductor supply chain.

• Follow the Money Upstream: If chipmakers win, suppliers often win bigger—ASML sits at a choke point in advanced manufacturing.
• Valuation Meets Narrative: At around 46x earnings, ASML needs sustained AI demand to justify growth expectations now priced in.

Today’s Change

(4.08%) $53.70

Current Price

$1370.95

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$508B

Day’s Range

$1348.77 – $1400.34

52wk Range

$578.51 – $1547.22

Volume

127K

Avg Vol

1.7M

Gross Margin

52.80%

Dividend Yield

0.59%

Lyme Vaccine Miss Clouds Approval Path

2:55 pm — PFE -0.52%

Pfizer (PFE 0.74%) and Valneva (VALN 37.02%) reported over 70% efficacy for their Lyme disease vaccine, but results were deemed inconclusive due to low case counts, complicating the path to approval. Pfizer plans to proceed with regulatory filings, citing “meaningful efficacy,” while Valneva—more dependent on the program—saw shares fall sharply. The vaccine targets a large unmet need, with Lyme affecting an estimated 476,000 Americans annually and no approved human vaccine currently available.

• High Stakes, Uneven Impact: Valneva plunged as uncertainty hit its core asset, while Pfizer’s diversified business muted the reaction.
• Approval vs. Evidence Gap: Pfizer is moving forward despite inconclusive data, setting up a regulatory decision that could hinge on interpretation, not just results.

Starboard Deal Reshapes Tripadvisor’s Prospects

2:18 pm — TRIP +6.79%

Tripadvisor (TRIP +7.38%) reached a cooperation agreement with activist investor Starboard Value, adding two new directors—former Expedia executive Dhiren Fonseca and RVC Outdoor Destinations CEO Andrew Cates—to its board. Starboard will support Tripadvisor’s nominees and board proposals, while retaining the right to propose two additional directors at the 2026 annual meeting. The deal signals a truce while keeping activist influence in play.

• A Platform, Or A Target? As TMFPrestonFreeman wrote Feb. 12, “With nearly half of revenue now coming from Experiences, Tripadvisor looks more like a strategic asset than a standalone turnaround.” That framing raises the stakes: activists may be positioning Tripadvisor for a sale—or at least keeping that option on the table if execution or valuation improves.
• Boardroom Chess Match: With two more potential nominees in 2026, governance—and strategy—remains in flux despite today’s ceasefire.

Today’s Change

(7.38%) $0.69

Current Price

$10.04

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$1.1B

Day’s Range

$9.25 – $10.13

52wk Range

$9.01 – $20.16

Volume

6.2M

Avg Vol

3.3M

Gross Margin

57.17%

Atomic-Scale Tech Could Supercharge AI Stock

1:20 pm — SNPS +3.6%

★ MSFT is recommended in Stock Advisor (Team RB) as a Foundational Stock; ASML is recommended in Stock Advisor (Team RB); INTC is recommended in Stock Advisor (Team HG)

Microsoft (MSFT +0.31%) is thinking small — atomically small — to secure the future of artificial intelligence. Its venture arm, M12, just led a $40 million Series A for Lace, a Norwegian startup developing helium atom beam lithography. While industry leader ASML (ASML +4.08%) uses 13.5-nanometer light waves to carve circuits, Lace utilizes a 0.1-nanometer beam to print features ten times smaller than current limits. This “atomic resolution” could eventually allow manufacturers like Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM +2.88%) and Intel (INTC +0.42%) to bypass physical bottlenecks that currently threaten the pace of Moore’s Law.

• Shrinking the Competition: Lace’s technology aims to produce transistors an order of magnitude smaller than today’s cutting-edge hardware. This leap offers a potential roadmap for AI processors to maintain exponential performance gains as traditional silicon scaling hits a wall.
• A New Lithography Standard: By moving beyond light-based systems, this Microsoft-backed venture challenges ASML’s virtual monopoly on high-end equipment. If successful, the shift to helium beams could redefine the capital equipment landscape for the entire semiconductor ecosystem.

Today’s Lunchtime News

1:25 pm

★ GOOG is recommended in Rule Breakers as a Foundational Stock and in Stock Advisor (Team HG); AAPL is recommended in Hidden Gems and in Stock Advisor (Team RB)

Samsung (SSNLF +55.02%) is rolling out a feature on its Galaxy S26 series that lets Android phones share files directly with iPhones, iPads, and Macs using Apple‘s (AAPL +1.39%) AirDrop protocol. The capability was developed by Alphabet‘s (GOOG +0.08%) Google and first appeared on Pixel 10 phones last year.

• How it works: Samsung users can enable a new “Share with Apple devices” toggle in their Quick Share settings. Apple was not involved in developing the workaround and has not commented on it, nor has it moved to block it.
• Why it matters: AirDrop has long been one of Apple’s stickiest ecosystem features that has made it less appealing for iPhone users to switch to Android. Google developed the workaround as Apple faces growing regulatory pressure worldwide to open iOS to third parties. If the feature spreads to all Android devices as Google intends, one of Apple’s most effective lock-in tools gets significantly weaker.

Huge Stake in Synopsys Shakes Chip Sector

12:20 pm — SNPS +3.6%

Synopsys (SNPS +2.89%) shares climbed 4% Monday after Elliott Investment Management revealed a multibillion-dollar stake in the silicon design leader. Activist Jesse Cohn intends to sharpen operational execution and monetization at the $80 billion firm, which provides essential electronic design automation for AI chips. The move follows a $2 billion investment from Nvidia (NVDA +1.80%) last December, aimed at revolutionizing engineering workflows through an expanded computing partnership. As AI drives unprecedented chip complexity and capital spending, Elliott believes Synopsys’s financial performance has yet to fully reflect its critical role in the semiconductor ecosystem.

• The Scarcity Catalyst: CEO Sassine Ghazi anticipates a memory chip crunch lasting through 2027, making Synopsys’s efficiency-boosting design tools indispensable for manufacturers racing to meet AI data center demand.
• Institutional Conviction: This aggressive position marks Elliott’s latest high-conviction tech play this month, following a $1 billion investment in Pinterest (PINS +1.36%), signaling a broader trend of activist pressure on established software-as-a-service and design platforms.

Google: U.S. Energy Is Failing AI Race

11:45 am — GOOG +0.7%

Alphabet (GOOG +0.08%) President Ruth Porat issued a stark warning at the CERAWeek conference, stating the U.S. is failing to scale electricity production fast enough to meet AI demands. Google’s chief investment officer expressed concern that the nation isn’t at “full throttle” on energy development, threatening the expansion of power-hungry data centers. As Alphabet accelerates its AI infrastructure, the availability of reliable, high-capacity electricity has become a primary bottleneck. This energy crunch could force Big Tech to pivot toward localized power solutions or face stalled growth in generative AI, an outcome that would significantly impact long-term capital expenditure efficiency.

• The Hyperscaler Gridlock: The massive kilowatt requirements for next-gen chips are outpacing current utility upgrades, potentially shifting investor focus toward nuclear and renewable energy providers.
• Infrastructure as a Moat: Companies that secure early access to limited power grids may gain a decisive competitive advantage as energy becomes the scarcest resource in the AI arms race.

Alibaba Bets $53B On AI Assistants

11:15 am — BABA +3.8%

Alibaba Group (BABA +2.98%) is set to launch an enterprise-focused agentic AI service, leveraging its flagship Qwen model to automate computer and cloud server operations. Developed by the DingTalk team, the tool aims to capitalize on China’s surging demand for AI assistants like OpenClaw. CEO Eddie Wu has committed $53 billion to AI investment, eyeing triple-digit growth as the company integrates these agents across Taobao and Alipay. With earnings due Thursday, the market is watching to see if this pivot can stabilize the ship following recent leadership departures and intensifying competition in the cloud sector.

• Synergy Across the Ecosystem: By embedding AI agents into DingTalk and its fintech platforms, Alibaba is attempting to lock enterprise clients into a self-reinforcing loop of productivity and commerce tools.
• The Productivity Multiplier: These digital employees are designed to navigate browsers and manage data autonomously, potentially reducing operational overhead for small-to-medium businesses throughout China’s digital economy.

Opening Bell

9:35 am — CAT +2.3%, JPM +1.9%

The Dow jumped 829 points Monday after President Trump announced “productive” talks with Iran, pausing planned strikes on energy infrastructure for five days. The news provided an immediate “off-ramp” for an oversold market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rising as Brent crude fell 8% to $102. While Iranian state media disputed the “direct” nature of the talks, cyclical giants like Caterpillar (CAT +3.00%) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM +1.17%) surged 2%. The rally halted a four-week losing streak that had nearly pushed the major indices into formal 10% correction territory.

Top of the Morning

9:20 am

Famed investor Peter Lynch is often credited with the investing aphorism, “Buy what you know.” This is a (somewhat terrible) distillation of his marginally better observance that, “If you like the product, you’ll probably like the stock.”

I’m critical of these interpretations of Lynch for several reasons. First, they are astonishingly analysis-free. If the product you like provides 2% of a company’s revenue and loses money for them in the process, who cares? Second, whither valuation? A company might be great — but if it’s priced for 50% annual growth in perpetuity, the stock’s probably a bad bet. Third, this removes great companies with great services that you either don’t understand, like, or are even exposed to from consideration. Fourth, people don’t have to agree with you (i.e. maybe you’re the only one who likes said product).

Obviously, analysis and stock selection are more nuanced than simple sentences.

6:00 am

Over the weekend, Elon Musk took to the stage to announce TERAFAB. The idea: make a Gigafactory for chip manufacturing that scales to produce 1 terawatt of AI compute power every year.

For context, Musk told his audience that “the current output of AI compute is roughly 20 gigawatts per year.” That means, Musk says, “the rest of the output from Earth is about 2% of what we need.”

Let’s set aside for a minute that Musk’s bold claims from his 2020 Battery Day event have largely proven fanciful. (Electrek reports that Tesla (TSLA +3.50%) is presently at about 2% of its original 2030 battery cell manufacturing goal.) I don’t need to believe that Musk is being realistic — and let me be honest here and say I am extremely skeptical of both his ambitions and his timeline — to see the very real arms race he’s just unleashed with TERAFAB.

Is Nebius Scaling Too Fast for AI?

10:15 am — NBIS +3.0%

Nebius (NBIS 3.20%) secured a $4.34 billion convertible debt round Monday, reinforcing its role as a critical backbone for Big Tech’s AI ambitions. The European firm is now “well-funded” for a massive $20 billion capital expenditure plan, supported by a recent $2 billion warrant sale to Nvidia (NVDA +1.80%). Nebius is increasingly essential to Meta Platforms (META +1.71%), recently sealing a capacity deal worth $27 billion, and Microsoft (MSFT +0.31%), which signed a $17.3 billion supply agreement in September. Management expects 60% of growth to be financed through customer prepayments, significantly limiting shareholder dilution while scaling its AI cloud services.

• Capital Efficiency Masterclass: By utilizing customer prepayments from hyperscalers to fund 60% of its expansion, Nebius is effectively using its clients’ balance sheets to build its own infrastructure.
• The Valuation Premium: The new convertible notes feature a conversion price 90% above the current stock price, signaling intense institutional conviction that the AI infrastructure land grab is far from over.

 

The Best Market Days Follow the Worst

8:15 am

The geopolitical situation in the middle east is clearly driving headline movements across the markets for traders. And it can flip with a post or a press conference. Trying to react to everything is a fool’s game. But we also can’t ignore what is happening around the world that has real economic impacts on the economy, borrowing costs, and asset prices (let alone national and personal security, and human toil). So I stay connected and in-touch, looking for three-year investing opportunities when looking at stocks or ETFs. And I’m not afraid to hold some more cash as prices fluctuate. But it’s critical to remember that the best days in the markets almost always happen with days of the worst days in the market. So we don’t want to get too cautious if we are investing capital for the next couple of years.

Trump Halts Iran Strikes; Futures Fly 1,100 Points

8:00am

In a dramatic Monday morning reversal, U.S. stock futures exploded higher after President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to planned military strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. In a Truth Social post, Trump reported “very good and productive conversations” with Tehran over the last 48 hours, leading him to postpone his Saturday ultimatum to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants for a five-day period. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures soared 1,100 points on the news, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each jumped 2.7%. This sudden pivot toward diplomacy has crushed the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which had spiked above 30 just hours earlier as investors braced for a catastrophic escalation in the month-long conflict.

• The Diplomacy Discount: Brent crude prices, which had been tracking toward $130 per barrel on fears of a total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, are retreating sharply as traders price in a potential “total resolution of hostilities.”
• Relief Rally Breadth: The surge is being led by sectors previously hammered by “Trumpflation” fears; airlines like United (UAL +4.54%) and retailers like Walmart (WMT +1.43%) are seeing double-digit pre-market gains as the threat of an imminent energy-driven recession fades.

This Morning’s Breakfast News

7:30 am — SNPS +2.61% in pre-market trading

Elliott Investment Management has built up a multibillion-dollar stake in chip-design software maker Synopsys (SNPS +2.89%), according to The Wall Street Journal. The activist investor intends to push Synopsys – recommended by both Team Hidden Gems and Team Rule Breakers – to grow its software and services profitability, the report says. The stock rose 2.5% in early trading.

• “Synopsys tool users are gonna go through the roof”: Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia (NVDA +1.80%) – a Synopsys customer and shareholder – spoke at the Synopsys Converge 2026 conference this month. Other chip design customers include Tesla (TSLA +3.50%), Alphabet (GOOG +0.08%) and Intel (INTC +0.42%).
• “Necessary tools because chips will continue to be designed”: Speaking of the impact of AI on Synopsys and Cadence (CDNS +2.94%), Fool contributing analysts Travis Hoium, Jon Quast, and Jose Najarro concluded: “AI may change workflows, but it doesn’t remove the need for subscriptions, and usage could rise as AI features expand.”

Greg Abel Makes First Big Move With Japan Deal

7:25 am — BRKB -0.74% in pre-market trading

Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB 0.20%) is deepening its commitment to Japan with a 287.4 billion yen ($1.8 billion) investment in Tokio Marine Holdings. The deal, executed through Berkshire’s National Indemnity subsidiary, secures an initial 2.49% stake in Japan’s largest property and casualty insurer. This marks the first major international move under new CEO Greg Abel, who officially succeeded Warren Buffett at the start of 2026. Beyond the equity stake, the two firms have entered a 10-year strategic partnership to collaborate on global reinsurance and joint M&A opportunities. While Tokio Marine’s stock initially dipped 2.6% in Tokyo trading due to the broader “Iran war shock” affecting global markets, the deal signals that Berkshire still views Japan as a primary destination for its $373 billion “dry powder” cash pile.

• Strategic Reinsurance: The partnership allows Tokio Marine to leverage Berkshire’s massive balance sheet for “Whole Account Quota Share” reinsurance, providing a critical buffer against increasingly volatile natural catastrophe risks in Asia.
• The Abel Continuity: By expanding into insurance–a core Berkshire competency–following Buffett’s successful bet on Japanese trading houses, Abel is signaling a seamless transition in investment philosophy while taking advantage of Japan’s low-interest rate environment via yen-denominated bond issues.

Today’s Change

(-0.20%) $-0.96

Current Price

$479.98

Key Data Points

Market Cap

$1.0T

Day’s Range

$479.00 – $485.98

52wk Range

$455.19 – $542.07

Volume

4.9M

Avg Vol

4.8M

Gross Margin

23.63%

Musk Declares Independence From Nvidia and TSMC

6:15 am — TSLA -2.65% in pre-market trading

Elon Musk revealed his most ambitious infrastructure project to date on Sunday: “Terafab,” a massive dual-facility semiconductor complex in Austin, Texas. A joint venture between Tesla (TSLA +3.50%) and the newly merged SpaceX-xAI entity, the project aims to produce one terawatt of annual computing power–roughly double the current output of the entire United States. One facility will focus on “edge” chips (AI5/AI6) for Tesla’s autonomous vehicles and Optimus robots, while the second will manufacture high-powered, radiation-hardened “D3” chips designed for a constellation of millions of AI data center satellites. Musk framed the $20 billion investment as a “declaration of independence” from giants like TSMC (TSM +2.88%) and Nvidia (NVDA +1.80%), arguing that global production cannot keep pace with his vision of a “galactic civilization.”

• Vertical Integration on Steroids: Unlike the traditional fabless model, Terafab will consolidate design, lithography, packaging, and testing under one roof to enable rapid 9-month iteration cycles for new silicon.
• The Trillion-Dollar IPO: The involvement of SpaceX–which is currently preparing for a mid-2026 IPO at a record $1.75 trillion valuation–suggests that space-based AI compute will be a core pillar of the company’s public market pitch.

Upstage Turns to AMD to Break Nvidia’s Korea Hold

5:30 am — NVDA -0.73%, AMD -1.79% in pre-market trading

Korean AI star Upstage is moving to break Nvidia‘s (NVDA +1.80%) hardware monopoly in South Korea, entering advanced talks with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD +0.79%) to purchase 10,000 of its latest Instinct MI355 AI accelerators. Upstage CEO Sung Kim met with AMD’s Lisa Su in Seoul last week to “materialize” a partnership that targets the upcoming round of Korea’s “AI Squid Game”–a state-backed foundation model competition. By diversifying its compute stack, Upstage aims to slash the training costs of its forthcoming 200 billion-parameter Large Language Model (LLM), which is slated for a summer 2026 debut. The move is a major win for AMD as it positions itself as the primary alternative for “Sovereign AI” projects across Asia and the Middle East.

• The “Squid Game” Stakes: Upstage is one of four remaining teams (alongside LG AI Research, SK Telecom, and newcomer Motif Technologies) competing for national representative status. Winners receive massive government-funded GPU clusters and the title of Korea’s “National AI.”
• Cost Efficiency as a Weapon: Kim’s strategy revolves around “efficiency at scale,” aiming to produce high-performance models at a fraction of the cost of U.S. and Chinese rivals. This lean approach is central to Upstage’s “Sovereign AI” exports to countries like Vietnam and the UAE.

Before the Opening Bell

5:15 am

Stock futures are falling again Monday morning as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran moves toward a “total war” scenario. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures tumbled more than 2% after Tehran launched fresh retaliatory strikes, defying President Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. With the deadline passed and the world’s most vital oil artery still blocked, investors are pricing in an imminent U.S. strike on Iranian energy infrastructure. This geopolitical “black swan” is overshadowing technical milestones from Nvidia (NVDA +1.80%) and Tesla (TSLA +3.50%), as the threat of $130-per-barrel oil risks triggering a global recession and forcing the Federal Reserve into an emergency hawkish pivot.

• Energy Chokehold: The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz–through which 20% of global oil flows–is creating a supply side shock that threatens to undo the “inflation cooling” narrative that buoyed markets earlier this year.
• Safe Haven Flight: As equities bleed, capital is rotating aggressively into “defensive” assets; gold has surged to a record high of $2,450 per ounce, and the 10-year Treasury yield is dropping as investors dump risk for the safety of government bonds.