Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open little changed on Monday after logging their worst week in more than three months in the previous session, with prospects of a US rate cut supporting market sentiment. Traders will be looking at India-US trade deals, heightened geopolitical risks, foreign fund outflows and a criminal probe into Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell.
Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 5.70 points, or 0.02 per cent, up at 25,794, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks were mostly up on Monday. KOSPI gained more than a per cent, while Hang Seng was up nearly half a per cent.
The Q3 result season and expectations around the Union Budget 2026 will be the key market drivers. The US Supreme Court verdict on tariffs will be closely monitored, as any clarity could influence near-term global market sentiment, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
Major US stock indices jumped to record highs on Friday after data showed the U.S. economy created fewer jobs than expected in December. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 237.96 points, or 0.48 per cent, to 49,504.07, the S&P 500 gained 44.82 points, or 0.65 per cent, to 6,966.28 and the Nasdaq Composite surged 191.33 points, or 0.82 per cent, to 23,671.35.
The US dollar retreated from its strongest in a month early on Monday, as US prosecutors opened a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, adding to tensions with the Trump administration. The dollar index was last 0.3 per cent lower at 98.899, snapping a five-day winning streak.
Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors eyed potential supply disruptions from OPEC producer Iran amid intensifying protests, although efforts to quickly resume oil exports from Venezuela kept a lid on prices. Brent crude futures slipped 5 cents to $63.29 a barrel while US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $59.06 a barrel, down 6 cents.
Investors should focus on capital preservation, maintain higher exposure to quality large-cap stocks, and avoid aggressive positions in high-beta or leveraged names, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. “Traders may look to tactically participate in short-term technical rebounds but should adhere to strict risk management and stop-loss discipline.”
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 3,769.31 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,595.84 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs have dumped Indian equities worth Rs 11,789 crore in January 2026 so far.
The sustained selling by FIIs has led to the sharp depreciation in the rupee. This year is likely to witness some changes in the FII strategy, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. “Significant improvement in fundamentals are likely to attract net FII inflows in 2026. Robust GDP growth and prospects of improvement in corporate earnings in 2026 augur well.”
Nifty50 & Sensex outlook
We are of the view that as long as the market trades below the 50-day SMA or 26,000/84,900, the weak formation is likely to continue. On the downside, 25,600/83,700 would act as an immediate support zone, Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.
“Below this level, selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Further below, the market could slip to 25,400–25,300/83,100-82,800. On the upside, above 25,750/84,200, we could see a quick pullback up to 25,850–25,900/84,500-84,700,” he added.
Overall chart structure and candlestick patterns indicate further weakness in Nifty. Immediate support lies at 25,500 and a break below could drag it towards 25,300. On the upside, resistance is placed at 25,900, with sustained strength above this level opening room toward 26,100. Sell on rise remains the preferred strategy, said Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services.
Bouts of selling pressure dragged Nifty50 to close at a several-day low. Market sentiment appears decisively negative. In the short term, the trend might remain weak, with potential downside towards 25,550–25,500. On the higher end, resistance is placed at 25,850, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.
Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank witnessed profit booking for three consecutive sessions, reflecting short-term exhaustion at elevated levels and cautious sentiment among market participants. If selling pressure re-emerges and the index decisively breaks below 59,000, it could trigger a deeper corrective move toward the 58,700–58,600 zone, said Choice Broking.
“A convincing close above 59,500 would strengthen bullish momentum, while failure to sustain above this level may result in short-term consolidation or mild weakness. Traders are advised to remain constructive yet disciplined, closely monitoring 58,800 as a key support and 59,500 as the crucial resistance for near-term directional cues,” it added.
Nifty Bank on the weekly chart has formed a Dark cloud cover candlestick pattern indicating selling pressure at higher levels. It is expected to remain in a consolidation phase within the 58,800–60,400 range. A decisive breakout above this range or a breakdown below it will provide clarity on the next directional move, said Bajaj Broking.
“Key short-term support zone lies at 59,000–58,700. This area is significant as it represents a confluence of the 50-day EMA and the previous month’s low, making it a crucial level to watch,” it said.
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