UK monthly property transactions picked up slightly in February, with HMRC reporting 102,410 completions. While this marks a modest rise from January, volumes remain below last year’s stamp duty-driven peak, reflecting a market that is steady but cautious amid ongoing rate fluctuations and wider economic uncertainty.
Below, mortgage and property professionals share their insight on where the market goes from here:
Hamza Behzad, Business Development Director at Finova says:
“Time and time again, the UK housing market has proven its resilience to systemic shocks. As transactions pick up, it’s clear that first-time buyer appetite is still on the rise. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has introduced some volatility to the market, but today’s figures paint a clear picture: underlying demand is strong.
But there are still some hurdles for first-time buyers. While housing in England is now at its most affordable level in over a decade, swap rates are increasingly volatile. This will translate to steeper rates – a forecast slash of the base rate has already been postponed, and many buyers are now facing mortgage deals at above 5%.
There is hope this proves to be a temporary period of disruption as markets settle, but much will depend on how long current volatility persists. The industry is stepping up, urging the government to roll out a more coordinated housing strategy to protect the UK housing market from external disruption. For now, we can rest assured that the UK housing market has endured disruption before, and can do so again.”
Andrew Lloyd, Managing Director at property data firm, Search Acumen, said:
“Today’s decrease in property transaction volumes sets an ominous tone for the market, as dark clouds gather on the horizon. The conflict in the Middle East does not seem to be near resolution and the economic effects are already accelerating, despite not being completely captured in this data.
Whilst January and February are not typically active times for completions, the decline in volume of residential transactions from the same period last year makes a typical Spring bounce look worlds away, as consumer confidence wanes.
The US, as a market indicator of what we might expect to see in the coming weeks, shows increasing affordability pressures as mortgage rates there surge to 6.38%, causing overall house sale volumes to fall.
If we see geopolitical tensions ease and inflation hold, we may see transactions rebound. But as we know, uncertainty is a market killer. What is more likely is that the market volatility we’ve witnessed in recent weeks will become more evident in datasets next month, as deals sit on their hands and buyers wait.
Commercial property transactions, as a benchmark for market health, will undoubtedly be hit by macro shocks, but shrewd investors will be looking for ‘the bottom’ to deploy their capital carefully and take a long-term view. We’ll also likely see sectors like Tech and Life Sciences ride the storm better than others, driven by unmet need and massive supply constraints. Last week saw the approval of the first £1bn data centre in London, the largest in the city, signalling to markets that opportunities do remain.
The reality is that overall, things are likely to get worse before they get better, with the coming months set to bring a contraction of the market compared to previous years. For those at the coalface, stopping deals from falling out of bed will be the priority, with enough agility to take advantage of the smaller number of new deals that are still there to be done. Using technology to support these timescales and unlock complex caseloads will be key for law firms and property professionals in more challenging times.
It should be noted that these challenges are not of the UK’s making, and there may be little that can be done in the UK to resolve them. But just as uncertainty is a market killer, consumer confidence will always be king. If fiscal policy can find clever ways to restore just a fraction of this lost confidence, the outlook could be much more resilient.”
Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients, says:
“At the point in time where this data was recorded, lower mortgage rates was helping support activity in the housing market. We saw a strong level of enquiries as buyers got on with moves that they had put on hold due to uncertainty over the Budget.
Now, with the chance of further interest rate cuts on hold, and talk of rises if the war in the Middle East continues for a prolonged period of time, there is much volatility in mortgage pricing. Borrowers who will need a mortgage in the next six months should consider fixing now for peace of mind and in case rates rise further in the short term at least.”
Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software:
“At the start of the year, I said 2026 would be the year the mortgage market starts growing again – and February’s figures show exactly the kind of momentum we were expecting. Transaction levels were 7% up on January and the highest since March 2025, clear evidence that the market was accelerating before the Iran conflict reshaped the global outlook.
We are now operating in a very different environment – one defined by rising rates, tightening affordability and a shift in buyer and seller behaviour that will play out over the coming months.
The mortgage market is entering a period where volatility is likely to remain the norm rather than the exception. To stay ahead, lenders will need technology that can adapt at pace – systems capable of real‑time insight, rapid product changes, and seamless operational flexibility. The priority now is building resilience and ensuring organisations are equipped to respond confidently to whatever the market delivers next.”
Jason Tebb, President of OnTheMarket, comments on HMRC residential property transactions (February data):
“This transaction data reflects the period following the uncertainty created by pre-Budget speculation and before the Middle East conflict arose. The market was picking up, with buyers and sellers keen to make their move and transaction levels at the same level as in the run-up to the end of the stamp duty holiday last year.
The data shows how important clarity and confidence are for the smooth functioning of the housing market. Our own property sentiment index suggests that focused buyers and sellers are getting on with the business of moving, with many having already delayed decisions and not prepared, or able to, hold off any longer.
Although mortgage rates are edging upwards, these come on the back of several base-rate reductions from the Bank of England. Many borrowers are still in a better position as far as affordability is concerned than they were a couple of years ago.
The increase in sellers bringing their homes to market this spring will keep prices in check to an extent, which should further assist those looking to move.”
Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter:
“February’s transactions data points to a housing market that is losing momentum. The seasonally adjusted number of property transactions was 102,410, down 6% compared to the same time last year, though up by 6% on January due to the usual workings of the UK property market. The weaker picture compared with last February reflects a change in sentiment as much as affordability. Last year’s figures were flattered by stamp duty‑related behaviour, whereas buyers today are contending with a far more uncertain backdrop.
As this was the highest number recorded since March last year, there were signs that the housing market was beginning to wake from its slumber. But rising geopolitical tensions, expectations of higher interest rates for longer, and a recent repricing of mortgage deals will likely have put it back into its sleep.
While some of that impact is yet to be felt, the fall compared to last year suggests there is enough to indicate that buyers are taking longer to commit, with some choosing to wait for clearer signals on rates. It is likely that going forward, the uncertainty around mortgage rates and the geopolitical picture will weigh more heavily on transactions as people sit tight and wait for things to calm down before committing to a property purchase or sale.
From a policy perspective, this underlines how sensitive activity remains to borrowing conditions. Prices have been relatively stable, but transaction volumes are telling us that confidence is still fragile and closely tied to the cost and availability of mortgage deals. Those deals remain volatile too, with uncertainty about the Bank of England’s likely next steps with interest rates and whether or not it may actually have to raise rates this year.”
Ryan McGrath, Director of Second Charge Mortgages at Pepper Money, comments:
“February’s figures are a welcome sign that the underlying demand we saw building through the final months of 2025 hasn’t evaporated. Transactions had been tracking steadily upward from September through to December before pulling back in January, suggesting that softness was seasonal, rather than structural.”
Year-on-year, volumes sit below last February, though much of that early 2025 activity reflected buyers pushing to complete ahead of April’s stamp duty threshold changes, making it a high watermark that was always going to be hard to match.”
The improving rather than moving dynamic remains the dominant force in this market. Many homeowners are sitting on competitive fixed rates they have no interest in unwinding, and for those borrowers, a second charge mortgage offers a practical way to access equity or manage debt without touching their existing deal. With oil prices rising and the geopolitical backdrop shifting sharply at the end of the month, February may prove to be the last settled data point before a more uncertain period. The case for flexible lending that doesn’t require a full remortgage is only likely to grow from here.”
Nick Leeming, Chairman of Jackson-Stops, comments:
“February’s HMRC property transactions data points to a housing market that remains resilient. Activity levels suggest a measured start to the year, with buyers proceeding thoughtfully as mortgage rates continue to fluctuate, encouraging a more considered and deliberate approach to decision-making.
This marks a clear contrast to the same period last year, when buyers were actively rushing to complete transactions ahead of the stamp duty changes introduced in April 2025. That surge in activity inevitably pulled forward a degree of demand.
Across our network, we have recorded a noticeable increase in new instructions, particularly in coastal locations and well-connected commuter hotspots. Branches such as Newmarket and Taunton have seen property instructions more than double month-on-month, reflecting growing seller confidence as we move toward the spring market. Encouragingly, properties priced in line with current market conditions are attracting meaningful interest and progressing to exchange, while those positioned above market expectations are continuing to require greater patience and careful negotiation.
Tomer Aboody, director of specialist lender MT Finance, says:
“A small increase in transactions can be attributed to a couple of factors with buyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates, as well as a delay in completions following the Christmas break.
Historically, we can see a spike during certain periods when stamp duty was reduced or before it was increased, which is always a good indicator as to how the market reacts with some help when it comes to taxes.
With the ongoing conflict and unstable economy, hope of lower rates and lower stamp duty are dwindling, but hopefully more stability as we progress through the year will help push rates back down.”
Jeremy Leaf, north London estate agent and a former RICS residential chairman, says:
“These strong numbers show just how market activity was gaining momentum in the period leading up to the conflict in the Middle East. Completed sales are generally a better indicator of housing market health than more volatile prices, not least because these include cash and mortgage transactions.
There was no question about how the volume of enquiries to our offices dropped when the war started. However, the more committed buyers and sellers, particularly those relying on lower loan-to-value ratios, are continuing, albeit more cautiously, in expectation that any negative impact on mortgage costs and inflation will be relatively manageable.”