Peace-Talk Collapse Roils Markets — Warsh Hearing, Earnings to Test Wall Street

Key highlights:

• Oil surged Monday after the U.S. moved to block Iranian shipping following failed peace talks; the dollar strengthened while Asian stocks and bonds slipped ahead of the start of U.S. earnings season.
• U.S. Treasuries and Asian bonds fell, with Japan’s 10‑year yield hitting a 29‑year high of 2.49%, though overall moves were modest and left assets near levels seen before last week’s ceasefire.
• Japan’s benchmark 10‑year JGB yield climbed to a 29‑year high Monday after U.S.–Iran peace talks collapsed and the U.S. Navy prepared a Strait of Hormuz blockade, sending oil sharply higher and stoking inflation concerns.
• China and Hong Kong stocks weakened Monday, joining an Asia-wide sell-off as the collapse of U.S.–Iran peace talks damped risk appetite. The fell 0.2% to 3,979.26 by the lunch break, and the eased 0.1%, both recovering from steeper opening losses.
• The safe‑haven dollar rose Monday after U.S.–Iran peace talks collapsed and the U.S. Navy prepared to blockade Iranian ports, though the greenback trimmed gains as the session progressed.
• Gold dipped to a near one-week low Monday as a firmer US dollar, and a jump in oil after failed U.S.–Iran peace talks stoked inflation fears and reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts this year.

, S&P 500, and futures slid about 0.8% Sunday night ( down 0.85%), though they were slightly off the evening lows. jumped over 8% to nearly $105 a barrel, while the 10‑year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.35%.

Major stock indexes finished mostly lower Friday after March jumped and consumer sentiment plunged to an all‑time low, but the market still notched a second straight weekly gain.

The Dow fell 0.6% and the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. For the week, the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow gained 4.7%, 3.6% and 3.0%, respectively.

US Economic data and Earnings Calendar:

Investors will look for signs this week that U.S. corporate profits remain on track and whether rising Middle East tensions and surging energy costs threaten that optimistic outlook.

S&P Dow Jones Indices is launching a new credit-default swap index tied to the private credit market, offering investors a way to bet against a sector that has faced recent turbulence.

The CDX Financials index covers 25 North American financial firms, banks, insurers, REITs and BDCs and uses CDS contracts, which provide insurance against a bond issuer failing to repay creditors, at a time when private credit funds are undergoing their most serious stress test since the sector’s post‑2008 expansion.

Economic calendar:

Monday, April 13

• 10:00 a.m. ET: U.S. (Mar, est. -0.7% annualized).

Earnings: Fastenal, .

Tuesday, April 14

• 6:00 a.m. ET: U.S. small‑business survey (Mar).
• 8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. (Mar, est. +1.1% m/m, +4.6% y/y).

Earnings: AGF, BlackRock (NYSE:BLK), Citigroup (NYSE:C), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ), (NYSE:JPM), (NYSE:WFC).

Wednesday, April 15

• 8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. import prices (Mar, est. +1.7% m/m, +3.4% y/y).
• 10:00 a.m. ET: U.S. NAHB housing index (Apr).
• 2:00 p.m. ET: U.S. .

Earnings: Bank of America, JB Hunt, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Progressive.

Thursday, April 16

• 8:30 a.m. ET: U.S. (week of Apr. 11, est. 214,000).
• 9:15 a.m. ET: U.S. & capacity utilization (Mar).
• G20 finance ministers/central bank governors meet in Washington.

Earnings calendar:

Monday, April 13

• Fastenal, (GS) Goldman Sachs.

Tuesday, April 14

• AGF, (BLK) BlackRock, (C) Citigroup, (JNJ) Johnson & Johnson, (JPM) JPMorgan, (WFC) Wells Fargo.

Wednesday, April 15

• ASML (NASDAQ:ASML), Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), PNC, Progressive.

Thursday, April 16

• Abbott (NYSE:ABT), BNY Mellon, Charles Schwab, Kraken Robotics, Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP), Prologis, (NYSE:TSM), U.S. Bancorp.

Friday, April 17

• Fifth Third Bancorp, State Street Corp., and Truist Financial Corp.

TSMC (TSM) shares pulled back from an intraday high on Friday but still rose 1.4% after strong March sales.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) Q4 revenue fell 4% when results were released in mid‑January, yet the stock climbed 4.6% to a record high on Jan. 15, boosted by strength in its capital‑markets business. The revenue drop largely reflected Goldman’s sale of its Apple Card business to JPMorgan (JPM), but a nearly $2.5 billion reduction in credit‑loss provisions helped offset the hit and lift profits.

JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC) have trailed Goldman Sachs (GS) over the past 12 months, while Citigroup (C) has outperformed; trading near the top of a cup base at 125.16.

Weekly US Indices Probability Map:

• The U.S. weekly market probability map for April 13 – 17, 2026 suggests “Historically, US indices kick off and finish the week of April 13–17 bullish, with mixed action in the middle.”.
• These probability maps are derived from historical seasonality patterns.
• Sentiment readings are derived from a seasonality-based scoring system.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.