Investing.com — A surge in tied to the Iran conflict could shave about 0.3% off global economic growth while pushing inflation higher over the next year, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
The bank estimates that rising energy prices will increase global headline inflation by roughly 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points, with a smaller boost to core inflation of about 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points. The outlook reflects updated oil and gas forecasts following supply disruptions linked to the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman said the economic shock from the conflict appears concentrated primarily in energy markets rather than across broader supply chains, reducing the risk of the kind of widespread disruptions seen during the pandemic.
Energy prices have climbed sharply as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil shipments, has been disrupted during the war. The jump in oil and is expected to weigh on economic activity while increasing pressure on consumer prices worldwide.
Despite the energy shock, Goldman noted that most major economies have limited trade exposure to non-energy goods from the Middle East. Non-energy exports from Gulf countries account for roughly 1% of global trade, meaning broader supply chain disruptions are likely to remain limited.
The bank also said the current situation differs from the 2021–2022 inflation surge, when multiple supply chains were disrupted simultaneously. In the current conflict, the inflationary impact is expected to remain largely confined to energy-related sectors.
However, Goldman warned that risks could grow if the conflict intensifies or if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period. A prolonged disruption to energy supplies could push oil prices higher and amplify the drag on global growth while keeping inflation elevated.