This week brought developments that could shape Bitcoin’s short and medium-term outlook. A 25 basis point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve has provided some support for risk appetite, while a 25 basis point by the Bank of Japan has made the yen more expensive as a funding currency. Together, these moves are influencing broader risk markets.
The offers short-term relief for risk assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies by reinforcing expectations of looser financial conditions. This policy shift gives markets room to stabilize after recent volatility.
For this support to turn into a lasting trend, must continue moving toward target levels, and the slowdown in growth and employment must remain orderly. If upcoming data shows renewed inflation pressure or sharper economic weakness, the current market optimism could fade quickly.
On the Bank of Japan side, the situation remains more complex. For many years, the yen carry trade worked on a simple idea. Investors borrowed cheaply in yen and invested in higher-yielding assets elsewhere. As the Bank of Japan tightens policy, this strategy faces pressure through two channels.
First, a stronger yen raises the risk of currency losses. Second, higher Japanese rates increase funding costs. When both effects appear together, investors often move quickly to reduce exposure to risky assets. Selling pressure tends to emerge fastest in highly volatile assets such as Bitcoin.
This week’s macro backdrop suggests that the support created by the Federal Reserve rate cut remains vulnerable to a potential unwind of the yen carry trade triggered by the Bank of Japan’s tightening. As a result, technical price levels have gained importance. Until the risk outlook becomes clearer, markets may continue to trade within well-defined ranges where activity has already been concentrated.
Bitcoin Technical Analysis
In the daily outlook for Bitcoin, buying interest around the $85,150 level remains important. This area has been tested several times in recent sessions and has emerged as a key support zone on the chart. The Stochastic RSI turning higher from low levels is helping support the current rebound and points to improving short-term momentum.
The main challenge now lies in resistance. For the recovery to extend, Bitcoin needs to break above key resistance levels and reverse the current bearish price structure. Until that happens, upside moves are likely to face selling pressure.
In the short term, several price levels stand out. The first area to watch lies between $87,850 and $88,100, which acts as an intraday resistance and reaction zone. Beyond that, attention shifts to $89,600 and then $90,987.
Resistance near the $91,000 level carries added importance, as it aligns with the 0.144 Fibonacci level on the chart. This zone helps determine whether the current move reflects a temporary reaction or a broader strengthening in price action.
The main decision zone sits between $91,000 and $94,714. The upper end of this range corresponds with the 0.236 Fibonacci level and marks an area of heavy trading activity during the last decline. As long as the price remains below this band, rallies appear consistent with a corrective move within a broader downtrend. A sustained move above the range, supported by daily closes, would change the outlook and could reopen the path toward the $100,000 level.
On the daily chart, the $100,630 level stands out as a key resistance, aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the three-month exponential moving average. The area around $100,000 often attracts strong selling pressure, as it acts as both a psychological barrier and a test of the broader trend.
A rally toward this zone could lead to a period of consolidation. For a clearer trend signal, the market needs to form a base with daily closes above $100,000. If price acceptance above this level takes place, higher Fibonacci targets on the daily chart come into focus. These include $105,411 at the 0.50 level, $110,192 at the 0.618 level, and $116,999 at the 0.786 level.
The $110,000 to $117,000 range holds particular importance for the medium-term outlook. This area sits near the upper boundary of the broader bearish channel and could play a decisive role in determining whether the market shifts toward a stronger upward trend.
Weekly Chart: Uptrend Break Shifts Attention to $83–$85k Zone
On the weekly chart, a downside break of the ascending channel that began in 2023 suggests the market has entered a phase of absorbing the recent correction rather than starting a new bullish trend. Price action supports the view of consolidation rather than acceleration.
Bitcoin is currently trading below the 0.236 Fibonacci level near $99,256 and above the 0.382 Fibonacci level around $83,200. These two zones are likely to define the trading range in the weeks ahead.
Based on the current structure, the $99,000 to $102,000 area stands out as a strong resistance zone, while the $83,000 to $85,000 range remains key support. As long as the price stays between these levels, the market is likely to remain range-bound.
At the same time, the weekly Stochastic RSI turning higher from oversold levels supports the view that the market may be searching for a bottom. This signal points to improving momentum after the recent correction.
For this signal to develop into a stronger trend, weekly closes must reclaim the $99,000 to $102,000 zone. Until that happens, the recovery remains tentative rather than confirmed.
To summarize:
- Reaction rally scenario: If Bitcoin settles above the $91,000 to $94,700 range and the $94,700 level holds as support, the path toward a test of $100,000 opens. If price remains above $100,000 with sustained acceptance, a medium-term recovery toward higher levels can develop. In that case, the $105,000, $110,000, and $117,000 zones come into focus as the next potential upside targets.
- Horizontal or consolidation scenario: If macro uncertainty persists, Bitcoin may enter a range-bound and news flow-sensitive phase, trading between $85,000 and $94,700. In this environment, price moves are likely to remain choppy, and sustained breakouts may prove difficult.
- Risk scenario: If Bitcoin loses the $85,000 level on daily closes, and especially if it falls below the $83,000 zone, the $70,000 area could emerge as the main downside target on a weekly basis. An unwind of carry trades or a sharp rise in risk aversion could act as key triggers for this scenario.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only. It is not intended to encourage the purchase of assets in any way, nor does it constitute a solicitation, offer, recommendation or suggestion to invest. I would like to remind you that all assets are evaluated from multiple perspectives and are highly risky, so any investment decision and the associated risk belongs to the investor. We also do not provide any investment advisory services.