Dan Duffy steps off his tractor earlier this year while planting soybeans on land he farms with his … More
Seven years of tariffs on Chinese imports have led to retaliation and diminished U.S. exports to China that are conservatively worth $160 billion and as much as $201 billion, based on my analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.
The analysis reveals the commodities that have failed to rebound and might be helpful to better understand how the world’s second-largest economy and the United States’ third-largest trade partner would respond to an escalated trade war.
From 2018, when President Trump first imposed tariffs on China, through 2024, when former President Joe Biden left office, largely having left those tariffs in place, U.S. exports to China increased 10.42%.
In the same time period, U.S. exports to the world increased 33.44%. If U.S. exports to China had kept pace with the 33.44% overall average, that would have resulted in an additional $159.92 billion in exports to China.
U.S. exports to China grew more rapidly than the average with the world in two seven-year periods … More
There’s good reason to believe they would have done so – or better.
In the seven-year period prior to the trade war, 2010-2017, the growth in U.S. exports to China was virtually double that of the United States with the world, 41.44% growth compared to the U.S. average with the world of 21.02%.
Had U.S. exports to China kept to that pace, the additional exports would have totaled $201.50 billion.
I looked at the U.S. exports that fell the most and increased the most during the seven years the tariffs have been in place for clues on what to expect should the United States and China continue to escalate the trade war rather than de-escalate it or simply leave it in place.
I looked at tonnage also, though those figures do not affect the trade deficit, on which the Trump administration remains sharply focused, and not only on the one with China.
A word about imports from China
Before I get to those U.S. exports, it is worth noting that U.S. imports from China “lost” to the trade war fell far more than exports in the last seven years, as much as $772.90 billion.
Because of that, some might describe the decline in U.S. exports to China during the trade war, by using a term often used in wartime: “collateral damage.”
Some others would suggest that the decline is not as steep as it might appear, that the Chinese are manipulating “country of origin” labeling. That’s a supposition supported, if not proven, by increases in U.S. imports from Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan and other countries corresponding to declines in specific commodities from China.
But because of that steep decline in U.S. imports, at least according to official U.S. government data, China dropped from being the United States’ top trade partner to No. 3 behind Mexico and Canada; dropped to second behind Mexico for U.S. imports, which it had previously dominated; and saw the U.S. deficit with China fall from about five times greater than with any other nation to just about 50% greater than that with Mexico. No doubt, China has felt the impact.
U.S. trade continues to grow
Despite this, U.S. trade continued to grow, even as trade with China fell, toping a record $5.33 trillion in 2024.
U.S. imports continued to rise, even as those with China faltered, topping $3.27 trillion.
And the U.S. deficit with the world continued to swell, increasing six of the last eight years, topping $1.20 trillion in 2024.
While it is hard to have certainty on U.S. imports from China, it is not difficult to have certainty on U.S. exports to China.
Exports to China that haven’t recovered
U.S. soybean exports to China – which buys a majority of these U.S. exports and was an early and highly visible symbol of the trade war that began in 2018 – were down $1.12 billion in the first quarter of this year from the first quarter of 2017, before the trade war began. That 33.97% decline is more than twice the decline in overall U.S. soybean exports, 16.93%.
Passenger vehicle exports to China are down 76.54% when compared to the same three months of 2017, which equates to $1.80 billion. U.S. passenger vehicles to the world are actually up 7.37%, or $948.80 million this year.
Like passenger vehicles and soybeans, the other eight exports that fell the most from the first quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of this year – a “bottom 10” rather than a “top 10,” if you will– all underperformed the U.S. average.
Oil shipments to China are down 25.61% while U.S. exports have increased 518.64%. China is, of course, buying oil from Russia, allowing it to continue to invade Ukraine, which the United States is spending billions to defend, along with European nations.
Those who recycle or consider themselves to be at least environmentally conscious might recall that during the early days of the trade war, China quit accepting scrap metal and paper.
You can see that in the data.
The export value of aluminum waste and scrap exported to China is down 85.93% from 2017 while U.S. exports have increased 29.61%. Paper and paperboard scrap exports are down 99.56% to China, 30.51% to the rest of the world. Scrap iron and steel exports have fallen 99.41% while exports to the world are up 28.53%.
Exports to China that are growing
There are, of course, winners, commodities that have increased since the first quarter of 2017, which has allowed U.S. exports overall to increase 8.18%. (The increase occurred during the Biden Administration, which was equally strident in policy just less voval; the first quarter total for 2025, with Trump back in office, is the lowest figure since 2020.)
Civilian aircraft and parts increased 97.88% in that time, far more than the 27.57% U.S. average with the world in that time frame. That’s an increase of $2.4 billion in the first quarter, compared to the first quarter of 2017. Much of that appears to be parts rather than flight-ready jets, although the Census data is not clear.
As was the case in the aviation category, China outperformed the U.S. average with six others in the top 10 as well, making it possible for overall exports to rise despite the performance of the laggards.
Three are in the healthcare field: the category of vaccines, plasma and other blood fractions; medicines in individual doses, which includes a number of cardiac, diabetic and anti-depressant medications and is one of the largest such categories; and medical instruments, which can range from syringes to expensive and large imaging machines.
The first, the vaccine category, is up 537.14%, compared to a U.S. increase with the world of 180.54%. The second, medicines, is up 128.01% compared to 72.72% for the United States as a whole. Finally, medical instruments rose slightly more than the national average, 36.80% to 36.65%.
All of the above can be loosely construed to contain advanced technology. With the computer chip category, there would be no doubt. Those U.S. exports toChina have increased 143.02% compared to the U.S. average of 47.06%.
The category that includes LNG and a broad plastics category both increased, 147.91% and 95.13%, respectively, but the U.S. averages increased more, 271.18% and 110.19%, respectively.
Lastly, at first glance, the Chinese seem not to have a beef with U.S. beef, which is delivered frozen, given the distance traveled.
That category has increased 1.9 million percent while the U.S. average with the world is an 88.14% increase. What accounts for the massive percentage gain? The total in the first quarter of 2017 was a paltry $15,232.
Bottom line: The trade war with China, now in its eighth year and swerving back and forth between escalation and de-escalation, hit Chinese imports hard but did not lower the U.S. trade deficit and harmed U.S. exports – providing something of a road map going forward.