The oil market received a boost from a broader risk-on move, with equities rallying and the market pricing in a higher probability of the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on 10 December. As a result, ICE Brent settled almost 1.3% higher on the day. However, the market continues to pay close attention to how peace talks to end the war in Ukraine develop. Reports suggest that there have been significant changes to the proposed peace plan, with the US and Ukraine essentially drafting a new one. The more contentious points, such as those related to territory, will need to be ironed out by President Trump and President Zelensky. Obviously, Russia must agree on any deal. For oil markets, a deal could remove significant supply risk, leaving participants to focus on bearish supply fundamentals through 2026.
European gas prices came under further pressure yesterday, with the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) trading below EUR30/MWh to its lowest level since May 2024. Ukrainian peace talks weighed on prices somewhat, while weather forecasts for December suggest milder-than-usual temperatures after a recent cold spell. The colder weather in recent days has led to gas storage in the EU falling more rapidly. It’s now 79% full, down from a 5-year average of 89%. The large investment fund gross short in the market still leaves plenty of positioning risk, particularly as we move deeper into winter. For now, funds seem to believe that the supply outlook is comfortable, with growing LNG supply.