Sugar prices fell for a second straight session, by around 2.3% yesterday to close at US¢15.54/lb yesterday, on expectations of increased supply from top producers and rising demand concerns in China and Indonesia. The latest fortnightly report from the Brazilian Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry Association (UNICA) shows that sugarcane crushing in Central-South Brazil stood at 50.1mt over the second half of August, an increase of 10.7% YoY. Output over this period rose 18.2% YoY to 3.9mt. Along with that, higher output estimates from other major producing countries such as India and Thailand indicate a global supply surplus for the upcoming season. On the other hand, Chinese demand has slowed down as the country remains well stocked after heavy imports, while Indonesia has temporarily halted sugar imports to support local farmers.
Meanwhile, the sugar mix in CS Brazil over the fortnight was 54.2%, up from 48.8% a year ago. The cumulative cane crush so far this season still lags last year, down 4.8% to stand at 403.9mt, while cumulative sugar production totals 26.8mt, down 1.9% YoY.
Recent estimates from Statistics Canada show that all-wheat production could rise to 36.6mt (+1.9% YoY) for 2025 compared to its previous projection of 35.5mt. The rise in production estimates is largely attributed to higher anticipated yields (+1.8% YoY to 51.1bu/acre). Similarly, the agency projects soybean production could increase to 7.1mt, up from its previous estimate of 7mt. However, it is lower than the 7.6mt (-5.7% YoY) produced last year. In contrast, corn for grain production estimates were reduced slightly from 15.6mt to 15.5mt for the above-mentioned period.
France’s Agriculture Ministry estimates that French soft wheat exports for the 2025/26 season could rise to 14.7mt, higher than the previous estimate of 14.3mt. This was also 41% higher than the previous season. The rise in exports could be largely attributed to the exports outside EU nations being raised from 7.5mt to 7.85mt for the 2025/26 season. Meanwhile, soft wheat inventories decreased to 3.64mt compared to earlier projections of 3.87mt, due to a rise in exports. In the first estimates for corn, exports could fall 11% YoY to 4.8mt in 2025/26, while stockpiles could increase to 2.23mt (+1.7% YoY) for the period mentioned above.
Recent trade numbers from China Customs show that corn imports declined significantly by 90.5% YoY to just 40kt in August. Cumulative imports fell 93% YoY to 880kt for the first eight months of the year. High domestic production, large stockpiles and government-imposed restrictions on feed grain imports reduced demand for imported corn. Meanwhile, wheat imports fell 44.8% YoY to 230kt last month, while cumulative imports are down 75.2% YoY to 2.6mt in Jan’25–Aug’25.