Oil prices extended declines with ICE Brent trading just below $66/bbl this morning, amid softening demand and persistent concerns over a looming global supply surplus. However, escalating geopolitical tensions, following Israel’s attack on Hamas’s leadership in Qatar and prospects of tighter Western sanctions on Russian energy exports, might help put a floor under oil prices.
In its latest monthly oil market report, the IEA expects a record oil surplus of more than 3m b/d in 2026 amid cooling demand growth in China and increasing supply. The agency sees muted demand growth, a rise of 740k b/d this year, up marginally from its previous forecast. The IEA attributes this to limited growth from emerging economies and falling demand in industrialised nations over the latter half of the year. Looking ahead to 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by around 700k b/d year-on-year. However, the IEA also revised up its oil supply growth estimates primarily due to the return of OPEC+ supply. The agency now forecasts global supply will grow by 2.7m b/d YoY this year, and by a further 2.1m b/d in 2026.
In its monthly oil market report, OPEC made no changes to its demand forecasts and continues to expect consumption to grow by 1.3m b/d this year and 1.4m b/d in 2026. Meanwhile, the group expects supply from producers outside the wider OPEC+ alliance to rise by 810k b/d this year and 630k b/d in 2026, unchanged from previous projections. OPEC continued to project a substantial supply deficit in global oil markets this year and next, even as the group revives production – a view that contrasts with the wider industry surplus expectations. Meanwhile, the release also shows that OPEC increased supply by 478k b/d month on month to 27.95m b/d in August. Saudi Arabia and Iraq drove most of the increase.
Insights Global data shows that refined product inventories in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) region increased by 218kt week-on-week to 6.2mt for the week ending 11 September 2025. The rise was largely driven by naphtha and gasoil inventories rising by 89kt and 44kt to 667kt and 2.2kt, respectively. Similarly, fuel oil stocks rose by 35kt WoW to 1.04mt, while gasoline stocks increased by 29kt WoW to 1.2mt over the reporting week.
In Singapore, onshore refined product stocks fell by 1.1m barrels to 50.5m barrels. Meanwhile, light distillate stocks and residual fuel inventories fell by 293k barrels and 871k barrels to 14.1m barrels and 26.5m barrels, respectively. In contrast, middle distillate stocks grew marginally by 22k barrels to 9.9mt for the week ending 10 September 2025.
Separately, EIA weekly gas storage data shows that US gas stocks rose by 71Bcf last week, keeping the total stockpiles above the five-year average. Ahead of the release, the market was expecting a build of around 68Bcf. This was well above the five-year average addition of 56Bcf for this time of the year. The bigger-than-average increase was largely due to warmer weather curbing demand. Total gas stockpiles totalled 3.34Tcf as of 5 September, which is 6% above the five-year average. The front-month Henry Hub contract declined almost 1% to trade around US$2.9/MMBtu in the early trading session today.