Let’s start with oil. Our first call for 2024 was that Brent would trade above $90/bbl in the second half of the year. Oil prices have already traded above that level several times this year, and we expect prices to briefly trade above that in the third quarter. However, any rally here is unlikely to be sustained.
We thought European natural gas storage would be very comfortable at the end of the 2023/24 winter. The expectation was that storage would exit the heating season between 45-50% full, but it was better than that, standing at 58% full by the end of March. Continued weakness in gas demand led to larger-than-expected storage.
Our final call for this year was that gold would hit record levels. This has already happened multiple times, with prices hitting a high of $2,450/oz in May. The move higher has occurred despite interest rates staying higher for longer. Strong central bank buying has propelled gold higher.