“I do reiterate my long-term bullish stance on gold. Over the next four years, I remain very bullish, but in the near term of six to seven months, there is more downside than upside for both gold and silver,” Goel told CNBC-TV18.
Goel expects gold, currently trading at about $3,335 per ounce, to test support at $3,240–3,250 in the coming weeks and possibly fall further to $2,800 levels by March–April 2026. Silver, he added, could slide to $32–33 over the same period. “If the Dollar Index goes up, it would put downward pressure on gold and silver over the next few weeks,” he said, noting his downward bias for both metals in the short term.
On equities and commodities more broadly, Goel said markets are looking stretched. “Equities in the US are looking a little topish, and precious metals are also looking a little topish,” he said, pointing out that a rising Dollar Index—currently at 98.43—poses a threat to emerging market currencies as well. He expects the Dollar Index to climb to 99.50–100 in the near term, and possibly 102–103 by early next year.
At the same time, Goel believes Treasury bonds are poised to do well as long-term yields appear set to come down. He also sees the Fed leaning towards a slightly dovish stance, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell is unlikely to be very committal at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting.
“This particular Jackson Hole has become more important because some people expect the Fed to become more aggressive on rate cuts, while others think the fear of inflation and tariffs would hold them back,” Goel said. “Any clarity from Fed Chairman Powell is going to be extremely critical.”
He noted that upcoming economic data—non-farm payrolls, CPI, PPI, and crucially the annual payroll revisions due on September 9—will determine the Fed’s tone in its September meeting. A sharp downward revision in jobs could push the Fed towards a more dovish policy, he added.
“My sense is that there is a bias towards Powell being a little more dovish than hawkish. So, my base case is that he’s going to be a little more dovish, but he won’t be very committal,” Goel said.
Watch accompanying video for entire conversation.