Even as gold and silver amaze in 2025’s commodities frenzy, Wall Street analysts say the most powerful bull market of the last half-century is quietly brewing in copper, where a deadly supply disruption has lit the fuse on a price surge that could redefine the global metals market.
When a mud rush on Sept. 8 at Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX)’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia killed seven workers and paralyzed output, the copper market began reeling from what’s shaping up to be a long-term supply crisis.
Grasberg Tragedy Sets Off Global Copper Shock
The mine, the second-largest copper operation on Earth, accounted for 4% of global production in 2024. That alone is enough to shake supply chains, but analysts at 22V Research say the ripple effects are even more profound—and they’re just getting started.
According to Colin Fenton at 22V, copper prices began a steady ascent after Sept. 24, when Freeport formally acknowledged that the Grasberg outage would significantly affect supply.
“The physical copper prices have been advancing on net and worldwide,” Fenton said in a note shared Monday.
Copper Hits Targets Early—And the Ceiling May Be Far Higher
On Oct. 9, the London Metal Exchange (LME) cash copper price hit $10,800 per metric ton ($5.06/pound), matching 22V’s original year-end target three months ahead of schedule.
Prices pulled back briefly to $10,588/mt ($4.96/pound) on Oct. 17, before rising again to close at $10,843/mt ($5.08/pound) on Oct. 23 and $10,937/mt ($5.12/pound) on Oct. 24.
With copper now trading just shy of $11,000/mt ($5.15/pound), 22V Research has sharply raised its 2026 year-end forecast to $13,400 per metric ton ($6.27/pound), up from $12,500/mt ($5.85/pound).
What’s striking is not just the base case, but the right tail risk. According to 22V’s risk model, there’s nearly a 20% chance copper could end 2026 above $17,500/mt ($8.20/pound)—a historic high never previously recorded.
That implies a 55% surge from current levels.
On the downside, the firm sees only a 20% probability that copper prices will fall below $10,500/mt ($4.92/pound) by the end of next year.
What Does It Mean For Investors?
If the copper bull market plays out as expected, Fenton said copper-linked equities like the Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:COPX) could climb 40% to 60% by 2027, driven by expanding margins and the amplifying effects of operating leverage on miner valuations.
The copper rally is unfolding alongside a broader macro narrative involving U.S.-China trade tensions, artificial intelligence infrastructure booms, and a government shutdown in the U.S.—all supportive of long-term demand.
“The world economy is now in the strongest bull market for copper in at least 50 years,” Fenton said.
“Neither specialists nor generalists can ignore copper from here through the end of the current business cycle,” he added.
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.