MARKET MOVEMENTS:
–Brent crude oil is 2.3% to $63.29 a barrel.
–European benchmark gas is down 2.5% to EUR31.72 a megawatt-hour.
–Gold futures are down 0.6% to $3,328.30 a troy ounce.
–LME three-month copper futures are up 0.2% at $9,421 a metric ton.
TOP STORY:
Commodity Prices Set to Tumble as Tariffs Slow Global Economy, World Bank Forecasts
Commodity prices are set to fall sharply this year and next as rising tariffs lead to a slowdown in the global economy, easing inflationary pressures but hitting many poor countries hard, the World Bank said Tuesday.
In a report, the bank said the anticipated declines in prices will cap the most volatile period since the 1970s, with the years since 2020 characterized by rises and falls in commodity prices that have been shorter and sharper than common over most of the last half century.
The outlook for the global economy has darkened since U.S. President Trump began to impose tariffs on imports from a wide range of countries. Most economists have lowered their forecasts for this year, and the World Bank said that if the global economy grows by the 2.3% consensus projection, commodity prices will likely fall by 12%, with a further decline of 5% in 2026.
OTHER STORIES:
China's Top Oil Companies Flag Weak Demand, Lower Crude Prices
State-controlled PetroChina reported higher profit despite lower revenue, thanks to better expense control and higher natural-gas sales, rounding out earnings for China's big three energy companies as they flagged slower demand for oil products and weaker crude prices in the world's second-largest economy.
PetroChina, the listed arm of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp., said Tuesday that its net profit rose 2.3% from a year earlier to 46.81 billion yuan, equivalent to $6.42 billion.
Revenue fell 7.3% to 753.11 billion yuan, which the Chinese oil major attributed primarily to weaker market demand and sales volume of refined oil products, as well as lower prices of some products.
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BP Plans to 'Drill, Baby, Drill' in the U.S.
BP, the oil company that once aimed to lead the shift to renewable energy, is now on board with President Trump's mantra of "drill, baby, drill."
The London-based energy company said Tuesday it was aiming to boost its production of oil and gas in the U.S. by more than 50% by the end of the decade.
The move comes as BP slashes green spending and pivots back to fossil fuels amid pressure from investors. Those include activist hedge fund Elliott Investment Management, which now has a 5% interest in the company.
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Meet the Canadian Fossil-Fuels CEO Who Wants to Power Trump's America
President Trump's ambitions to grow U.S. manufacturing, win the AI race with China and unleash fossil fuels will require massive amounts of power. Nathan Ough says he can help.
VoltaGrid, the $4 billion startup he co-founded in Houston, assembles modular, gas-fired power plants in a matter of months. It offers a shortcut to data centers and oil frackers that find there isn't enough capacity on the electric grid for their expanding needs and has become one of the U.S.'s fastest-growing power companies.
Ough, 37 years old, is the rare Canadian to voice support for Trump, who has all but incinerated the U.S.-Canada friendship. He says the president's embrace of fossil fuels, his cutting red tape for data-center development, and his focus on bringing industries back to the U.S. are all boons for VoltaGrid.
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Woodside in Intensive Talks With 'Couple of Parties' Over Louisiana LNG
SYDNEY- Woodside Energy is involved in intensive discussions with a couple of parties interested in participating in its newly approved $17.5 billion Louisiana LNG gas-export project, Chief Executive Meg O'Neill said.
Woodside wants to reduce its capital commitments to roughly half the cost of developing the project, which will be built in phases and is targeting production of liquefied natural gas for the first time in 2029, O'Neill said in an interview.
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Bellevue Gold Launches Strategic Review After Operational Performance Disappoints
SYDNEY--Bellevue Gold said it has begun a strategic review after setbacks in March triggered a cut to its annual output guidance.
Bellevue Gold said the review would consider "internal and external options" to maximize value for its shareholders.
The company, which has a market value of 1.29 billion Australian dollars (US$830 million), now expects to produce between 129,000 and 134,000 troy ounces of gold in the 12 months through June. It had previously targeted output of 150,000-165,000 oz.
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Fortescue 3Q Iron Ore Shipments Rise, Costs Fall
Fortescue reported a 6% rise in third-quarter iron-ore shipments and said production costs at its Australian hematite mining operations fell.
Fortescue, the world's fourth-biggest iron-ore producer, shipped 46.1 million metric tons of the steelmaking ingredient in the three months ended March 31, the company said Tuesday. That compared to 43.3 million tons in the same period a year earlier, when exports were disrupted because of a train derailment.
Shipments in its most recent quarter were impacted by several significant weather events, with tropical cyclones closing the major port of Port Hedland for five days during the period, the company said.
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Northern Star Downgrades FY25 Production, Cost Guidance
Northern Star downgraded its annual production and cost guidance, citing near-term operational challenges at one of Australia's largest open pit gold mines.
The miner on Tuesday said it now expects gold output of between 1.63 million troy ounces and 1.66 million ounces in the year through June 2025, down from between 1.65 million and 1.80 million ounces previously.
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Whitehaven 3Q Production, Sales Fall on Quarter
Australia's Whitehaven Coal reported a fall in coal production and sales quarter over quarter, citing disruptions to mining and export operations from heavy rainfall.
The company said run-of-mine coal production totaled 9.2 million metric tons in the three months through March, down 5% on the quarter immediately prior. Managed sales of produced coal fell by 19% quarter over quarter, to 7.0 million tons.
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Norsk Hydro Posts Earnings Rise Below Expectations
Norsk Hydro posted an increase in adjusted earnings that lagged market views as higher raw materials costs and weak downstream demand hurt the company's profitability.
The aluminum producer reported adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of 9.52 million Norwegian kroner ($921,195) for the first quarter, up from 5.41 million kroner in the same quarter last year. The increase was mainly driven by higher metal prices and positive currency effects, the company said.
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SSAB Earnings Exceed Expectations Despite Weakness, Lower North American Prices
SSAB posted a decrease in earnings but exceeded analysts' expectations on a generally weakened market environment and lower prices in North America.
The Swedish steelmaker said it made 1.13 billion Swedish kronor ($118 million) in net profit for the period compared with 2.57 billion kronor a year prior. Revenue fell 6% to 25.52 billion kronor.
MARKET TALKS:
SovEcon Raises Russian Wheat Export Forecast -- Market Talk
1007 ET - Black Sea agricultural research firm SovEcon says that it has raised its outlook for Russian wheat exports in 2024/25 by 200,000 metric tons to 40.7 million tons, this thanks to what the firm calls 'a modest acceleration' in the amount of wheat shipped in recent weeks. The firm also raised its outlook for 2025/26 wheat exports by 600,000 tons, although the firm still thinks that total exports for 2025/26 will stay below 2024/25. "Amid challenging market conditions, we do not expect a significant acceleration in Russian wheat exports," says Andrey Sizov of SovEcon in a note. CBOT wheat is up 0.8% in early trade, while corn is down 0.1% and soybeans fall 0.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
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U.S. Natural Gas Futures Tread Water After Solid Gains -- Market Talk
1003 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are holding onto most of yesterday's gains as the front month switches to June. Weather-driven demand is expected to remain subdued through May, leading to large storage builds that are seen switching the deficit over the five-year average to a surplus. On the positive side, LNG feedgas flows have picked up, and prospects for the summer are for hotter-than-usual weather favoring power-sector use. Nymex natural gas is off 0.5% at $3.326/mmBtu after rising more than 7% yesterday. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
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Base Metals Rise; Copper Surplus Expectations Raised -- Market Talk
1358 GMT - Base metal prices rise, with LME three-month copper up 0.3% at $9,432.50 a metric ton and LME three-month aluminum up 1.1% at $2,462.50 a ton. The International Copper Study Group has significantly raised expectations for a surplus in the global copper market. It now expects a surplus of 289,000 metric tons for 2025, an upward revision of around 100,000 tons. That said, the ICSG now expects slightly weaker mine production growth compared to its prior estimates. This is likely to confirm concerns of a shortage of raw material and will continue to raise doubts over sufficient medium-term supply, which should benefit copper prices, Commerzbank analysts say in a note. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)
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OPEC+ Output Prospects Keep Pressure on Crude -- Market Talk
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April 29, 2025 10:59 ET (14:59 GMT)
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